dukeguy

RICK NEEDHAM

MONMOUTH PARK
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2007
BREEDERS' CUP DAY

NEW FEATURE: I am now including the "PAR TIMES" for each race as part of this graded selection column. The "Par Time" is the average winning time for today's race, at this class level, at this distance at Monmouth Park Race Course. The data is based on winning times stored in the TrackMaster Data Base for THE LAST FIVE YEARS! Comparing current times recorded by today's entries to these "Par Times" may be a valuable handicapping aid!
RACE PAR TIME
1 1:50.20
2 1:09.90
3 1:09.53
4 1:44.63
5 1:43.99
6 2:12.60
7 1:08.48
8 1:32.17
9 1:49.98
10 2:27.40
11 2:01.46
NOTE: Why 4 selections in many races? Aqueduct offers Superfecta wagering on the last race daily. Also, the 4th selection is often a longshot with a reasonable chance of hitting the board, as well as providing a viable alternative in case of a scratch.

RACE/APPROXIMATE POST TIME

RACE #1 - 11:00 AM
The Pegasus Stakes
9.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE
#7 BWANA BULL
#6 HELSINKI
#4 STUNT MAN
#3 SLEW'S TIZZY
#7 BWANA BULL is the speed leader in today's stakes field racing at 9.0 furlongs on the dirt, and comes off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish in his last start, which was in a race which was contested at today's TrackMaster PLUS Class Level of 111. #6 HELSINKI takes a class drop (-6) to enter this graded stakes affair, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" facing better company, in both of his last two starts.
________________________________________
RACE #2 - 11:25 AM
The Miss Woodford Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE
#6 SINDY WITH AN S
#11 COCO BELLE
#8 MARINA BALLERINA
#3 LAURAS LAST MUSIC
#6 SINDY WITH AN S is the pace profile leader in this stakes field today, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her last five starts, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency. #11 COCO BELLE a 6-1 shot, is the speed leader in this field, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her last four starts, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last outing. Jockey Garrett Gomez and Trainer John Sadler send her "postward" this morning ... they've hit the board with 68% of their entries saddled as a team to date, producing a +30% profit in the process ... Gomez has been in her irons on two previous occasions, winning both, and guns for "The Hat Trick" today!
________________________________________
RACE #3 - 11:55 AM
The Select Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE
#7 PIRATESONTHELAKE
#6 DOUBLE ACTION
#10 E Z WARRIOR
#3 COBALT BLUE
#7 PIRATESONTHELAKE has hit the board in each of his last four starts, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts. #6 DOUBLE ACTION has won twice in "POWER RUN FASHION" in his last five starts, and goes to the post with the skills of the Jockey/Trainer combo of Michael Baze and Jerry Hollendorfer in his corner ... they've "whacked the tote board" with 58% of their entries saddled as a team to date, producing a +32% return on investment in the process.
________________________________________
RACE #4 - 12:30 PM
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
8½ FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $2,000,000.00 PURSE
#8 IZARRA
#10 PROUD SPELL
#1 PHANTOM INCOME
#13 CRY AND CATCH ME
#8 IZARRA, a 6-1 shot, has hit the board in each of her three career starts to date, breaking her maiden in her "first asking," and comes off back-to-back "POWER RUN BOARD HITS" in her last two outings. #10 PROUD SPELL is 5-1 in the morning line, and is undefeated in a three race career to date, with two of those "Circle Trip Results" also qualifying as "POWER RUN WINS!"
________________________________________
RACE #5 - 1:10 PM
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes
8½ FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I TWO YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS STAKES $2,000,000.00 PURSE
#2 WAR PASS
#11 DIXIE CHATTER
#7 PYRO
#12 SALUTE THE SARGE
#2 WAR PASS is undefeated in a three race career to date, with his last outing also qualifying as a "POWER RUN WIN." Jockey Cornelio Velasquez has been in his irons on two previous occasions, winning both, en route to a +297% return on investment in the process .. Velasquez is back today for his 3rd ride, gunning for "The Hat Trick!" #11 DIXIE CHATTER, a 10-1 BOMB, is the pace profile leader, and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start.
________________________________________
RACE #6 - 1:55 PM
The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
11.0 FURLONGS TURF GRADE I FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $2,000,000.00 PURSE
#3 NASHOBA'S KEY
#12 PRECIOUS KITTEN
#5 WAIT A WHILE
#6 LAHUDOOD
#3 NASHOBA'S KEY has won five straight, with four of those outings also qualifying as "POWER RUN WINS." Jockey Joseph Talamo, and Trainer Carla Gaines send her "postward" this afternoon .. they've hit the board with 50% of their entries saddled as a team to date .. Talamo has been in her irons on four previous occasions, winning each, en route to a +218% return on investment in the process. #12 PRECIOUS KITTEN, a 30-1 BOMB, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, winning three times ... I'll be putting a W-P-S wager on this entry who may have enough talent to win this one outright!
________________________________________
RACE #7 - 2:35 PM
The Breeders' Cup Sprint
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $2,000,000.00 PURSE
#2 MIDNIGHT LUTE
#10 GREG'S GOLD
#1 SMOKEY STOVER
#8 BENNY THE BULL
#2 MIDNIGHT LUTE is the pace profile leader in this stakes field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start. The nation's leading Jockey (see list below), Garrett Gomez, teams with Trainer Bob Baffert to send my top pick in this race to the starting gate today ... they've hit the board with 73% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #10 GREG'S GOLD, a 9-2 shot, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the speed leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his last five starts, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency.
________________________________________
RACE #8 - 3:20 PM
The Breeders' Cup Mile
8.0 FURLONGS TURF GRADE I THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $2,000,000.00 PURSE
#3 AFTER MARKET
#6 TRIPPI'S STORM
#7 COSMONAUT
#12 PURIM
#3 AFTER MARKET qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, including a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Alex Solis has been in his irons on 7 previous occasions, winning four times, which produced a +59% overall profit .. Solis is back today for his 8th ride. #6 TRIPPI'S STORM, and 8-1 shot, is the pace profile leader, and is a perfect "three-for-three" into "The Circle" when racing at today's distance of a mile on the grass.
________________________________________
RACE #9 - 4:05 PM
The Breeders' Cup Distaff
9.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $2,000,000.00 PURSE
#4 GINGER PUNCH
#6 BEAR NOW
#12 HYSTERICALADY
#7 LEAR'S PRINCESS
#4 GINGER PUNCH has hit the board in each of her last five starts, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Rafael Bejarano has been in her irons on nine previous occasions, never missing the board, winning five times, and is back for Rice #10 today. #6 BEAR NOW, a 15-1 BOMB, has turned in a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" in her last five starts. Jockey Jerry Baird was in her irons for those last two wins, which came at Philadelphia Park, and at Woodbine, producing a +463% return on investment in the process ... the "well traveled" Baird is here at Monmouth Park today for his 3rd ride, gunning for a "longshot upset!"
________________________________________
________________________________________
RACE #10 - 4:50 PM
The Breeders' Cup Turf
12.00 FURLONGS TURF GRADE I THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $3,000,000.00 PURSE
#7 DYLAN THOMAS
#6 ENGLISH CHANNEL
#3 BETTER TALK NOW
#5 GRAND COUTURIER
#7 DYLAN THOMAS, an Irish bred entry, has hit the board in each of his last five starts, including a trio of wins on the grass ... he's making his North American debut this afternoon, and brings European-based Jockey John Murtagh to ride. #6 ENGLISH CHANNEL has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, winning twice. Jockey John Velasquez and Trainer Todd Pletcher send him to the post for the "Co-Feature" this afternoon ... they've hit the board with 52% of more than 375 entries saddled as a team to date.
________________________________________
RACE #11 - 5:35 PM
The Breeders' Cup Classic
10.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $5,000,000.00 PURSE
#1 LAWYER RON
#4 CURLIN
#8 HARD SPUN
#9 TIAGO
#1 LAWYER RON has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency, and goes to the post with the skills of the previously noted (Race #10) Jockey/Trainer tandem of Velazquez and Pletcher in his corner. #4 CURLIN comes off back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts, and gets a return ride from "Top Jock" Garrett Gomez in his corner. Gomez has been in Curlin's irons on 7 previous occasions, never missing the board, winning 4 times en route to a +86% return on investment in the process. #8 HARD SPUN comes off back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts, and goes to the post with the Jockey/Trainer tandem of Mario Pino and J. Larry Jones in his shedrow ... they've hit the board with 63% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #9 TIAGO, a 12-1 BOMB, could add some value to your "boxed gimmicks" here in the finale ... he's coming off back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts. Although I have not included #2 STREET SENSE in my "top four" this afternoon, its hard not to include him in a superfecta box ... he shares the pace profile leadership in this field with Curlin, and has won three of his last five starts overall.
Disclaimer: Every attempt has been made to insure accuracy, however since this report is prepared and typed by hand, errors, including typographical and numerical, can be made. It is the responsibility of the end user to "cross check" these selections against the actual entries and program numbers.
________________________________________
TODAY'S BEST BET: #7 DYLAN THOMAS - RACE #10
TODAY'S BEST VALUE BET: #7 BWANA BULL - RACE #1
TODAY'S BEST LONGSHOT: #3 AFTER MARKET - RACE #8
TODAY'S BEST "BOXED EXOTIC" WAGERING OPPORTUNITY: RACE #11
________________________________________
Today's Wet Track/Soft Turf Suggestions
NOTE: "N.R." = NO RECOMMENDATION
RACE #1: #3 SLEW'S TIZZY / #4 STUNT MAN / #7 BWANA BULL
RACE #2: #6 SINDY WITH AN S / #7 SHEETS / #8 MARINA BALLERINA
RACE #3: #4 MOST DISTINGUISHED / #5 UNBRIDLED TRUST / #7 PIRATESONTHELAKE
RACE #4: N.R.
RACE #5: #2 WAR PASS / #7 PYRO
RACE #6: #4 PASSAGE OF TIME / #10 ARRAVALE / #11 SIMPLY PERFECT
RACE #7: #1 SMOKEY STOVER / #5 KELLY'S LANDING / #6 COMMENTATOR
RACE #8: #6 TRIPPI'S STORM
RACE #9: #1 BALANCE / #8 OCTAVE / #12 HYSTERICALADY
RACE #10: #7 DYLAN THOMAS
RACE #11: #1 LAWYER RON / #2 STREET SENSE / #5 GEORGE WASHINGTON / #8 HARD SPUN


Today's "PowerPonies"
RACE #3: #10 E Z WARRIOR
RACE #7: #10 GREG'S GOLD
RACE #8: #3 AFTER MARKET