big joe

Ah yes, Christmas in April has arrived! The weather is great, baseball has started and the best playoff action in sports is about to start, I'm referring to the chase for Lord Stanley's Cup. If you recall in 2005 (pre-lockout), I had predicted the Calgary Flames at 44-1 to win the Stanley Cup and I don't see any reason this season to not believe they can get back to the big dance this year.

If there's one thing I recommend to people who are making their playoff pools, is to forget everything about the regular season, as we are talking about apples and oranges. Game situations are different; teams who face the same team every second night with a growing animosity in every game, can make or break a team in various aspects. If there's one key factor to focus on when crunching your numbers, I would highly recommend you keep track of defensive statistics, because once you get in these elimination type games, it's very tense and teams who play better defense, normally prevail.

On to the series predictions.


Ottawa vs. Tampa Bay:

The Ottawa Senators faded horribly down the stretch and have been hampered by some key injuries to their defense corp. The Big Z is still nursing a sore hand and Phillips is day to day on his return. Hasek is a question mark heading into their series vs. Tampa Bay and Ray Emery has no playoff experience, so this is new territory for the young goaltender. As for the Lightning, they've been a Jekkyl and Hyde team who had to scratch their way into the playoffs and goaltending will be their biggest question mark. Ottawa in 5 games.


Carolina vs. Montreal:

The Hurricanes are a funny team who are lead by Eric Staal. GM Rutherford picked up some key veterans at the trade deadline, but my only concern is goaltending and the conditioning of aging veterans like Recchi and Weight. Montreal is a fast skating team and have one of the hottest goaltenders in the game with Huet. When you look at this matchup, you basically have to evaluate which top players of each team will answer the bell when the series start. Can Kovalev outplay Stall and can Huet out duel Gerber. I'm going to take Montreal in this series, as I feel the Habs have a better defense corps who can make a difference. Plus, don't forget the Montreal Canadiens ghost of the past are always lurking this time of year at either the old Forum building or the Bell Centre. Montreal in 6 games.


New Jersey vs. New York Rangers:

Nobody wants to play the New Jersey Devils at this time of year and who can blame them. The Devils are currently 11-0 SU since March 26th and Brodeur is playing at the top of his game. The Rangers have really lost their confidence and I think it's been since the Olympic Break. Lundqvist was hotter than a pistol pre-Olympic break and really faltered down the stretch since his return. New Jersey has a core of players who just love to play playoff hockey this time of year and watch for guys like Scott Gomez and John Madden to excel in close games. Plus, expect the Martin Brodeur Show to take over in the Conference Finals and the Stanley Cup Finals. New Jersey in 6.


Buffalo vs. Philadelphia:

The Buffalo Sabres have a great looking playoff team on paper, as they love to muck and grind, but my biggest concern is their lack of playoff experience. Miller and Biron have been great regular season goaltenders, but I'm just not sure how they will perform on the road in the playoffs. The Sabres are tough to beat at home with their great fans supporting them, but it's the road games I think will be their demise in the later rounds. The Flyers are sort of in the same position as the Rangers, they rode their goaltender Niittymaki in the first half and he's struggled since his return from the Olympics. Plus, the biggest question in Philly is whether Forsberg will be able to last the whole playoffs without an injury? I like the Sabres in 7. Too many if-factors in Philly.


Detroit vs. Edmonton:

Now the fun begins, ripping the Detroit Red Wings, or as I like the call them, the Atlanta Braves of hockey! The Red Wings have a great offensive powerhouse and have some great players like Datsyuk, Williams and Zetterberg, but can that aging defense core handle the grind down the stretch. Edmonton has nothing to lose in this series; they will be pegged as big underdogs and will ride the Roloson wave. I think Edmonton could be the sleeper team of the playoffs and with good vets like Ryan Smyth, Mike Peca and Christ Pronger on the team, should pay off in the locker room in Game 6 and 7 of some series. Furthermore, for you poolies out there, I think Samsonov will be a good sleeper pick. Edmonton to stun the hockey world in 6 games.


Dallas vs. Colorado:

At first glance, I gave the Dallas Stars a hard serious look at going all the way, but had to jump off the bandwagon after seeing Calgary's defensive numbers. I think the Stars have the potential to go far in the playoffs, but they will need some big time help from their 3rd and 4th line guys to go deep. Colorado is a team with no face, I think Joe Sakic's better days are behind him now, as this is a skater's league now and the rest of the Avs have gone missing in action. Plus, the Avs are receiving some shaky goaltending with Budaj and Theodore, but watch out for Theodore next year, I think if he gets his head back together with some serious off season training, he could be back in his MVP form. Dallas in 5.


Calgary vs. Anaheim:

There's strength in numbers and as much as I hate to take the Calgary Flames to reach the Stanley Cup, I just can't go against these numbers. They own the best GAA average; Kipper is the top goalie in the league with his league leading 10 shutouts. My only question mark on this Flames team, how are they going to get it done on the road? They own a losing road record at 16-18-7, but have the best home record in the Western Conference. Only Carolina had a better home record at 31, but look in which division they played in, the "south-least" division to win. Anaheim is a strange team to handicap this year. They have a decent core of players and one of the best all time playoff defenseman in Scott Niedermayer. I think their downfall with be goaltending, as Bryzgalov and Giguere will not be able to meet their match in Kiprusoff at the other end of the rink. Calgary in 7 games. Remember, nothing comes easy for the Flames.


Nashville vs. San Jose:

Let the Joe Thornton love fest begin! Everybody I've talked too believes the Sharks will be this years NHL Stanley Cup darlings, but I'm sure they haven't checked out the 2nd, 3rd and 4th line of the Sharks. Plus, the Sharks Blue Line is nowhere near the same caliber as some of the top teams in the league. I mean, who in the hell is Tom Preissing and where did he come from to lead the Sharks defense in scoring? If Nabokov gets the nod and finds his groove, he could make this interesting. Nashville is a nice team and its unfortunate goaltender Thomas Vokoun suffered his lower back blood clot injury, but there's always somebody waiting in the wings to shine. I think this will be the best series of them all and I'm going to ride the Home Team in this one, Nashville wins this in 7 games.


If you recall in my 2004-05 Stanley Cup Prediction, I had the New Jersey Devils vs. Calgary in the finals and I'm going to be going down that road in '06. When it's all said and done, Martin Brodeur and the New Jersey Devils will win the Stanley Cup over the Calgary Flames and win the series in 6 games.

Good luck with your pools and have a great summer.

Ron Raymond