Beachboy,
Good post. I agree with what you say regarding how the gap has narrowed between the haves and have-nots. It would be interesting to see how the margin of scores has changed over the years. I would think that would be the best way to determine to what extent that gap has narrowed.
If one subscribes to that belief, then angle and trends that are over 10, 15 years old would have much less credibility than they would today. It does amuse me when I see a tout saying "team A is 82-17 since 1983 when they stay at a Holiday Inn Express" or something to that effect.
However, one of the largest reasons why it is harder to beat the books in college sports is the change in the world over the past ten to fifteen years.
With the Internet there is an immediate and inexhaustable supply of information. In the 80' and 90's you had touts talking about their "scouts" and "inside information". You did need help across the country to get info on teams.
This was a two-edged sword. The lines on teams were not nearly as sharp as they are today. Somebody who did the work and was able to get the data and info on teams could be far ahead of Vegas. Thus, they could beat the books on a more frequent basis.
Today, if the second string quarterback on the Louisiana Tech team sprains an ankle in practice, you can find that info easily over the web.
Also, with the internet, lines can now adjust immediately due to any situation. Stale or out-of-whack numbers are more difficult to find. Also, as we have seen, the grading of a tout's picks is vital to their "record". Without the internet and the ease of checking lines, old touts could claim a much higher success rate than they probably had.
Lyle
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