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BadCo · 12-13-2006, 08:46 AM

He was 0-2 yesterday

YESTERDAY'S PICKS

League Pick Final Score W/L Units
NCAAB Pinnacle @ 12.5 -106 Saint Mary's (58) at Nevada (76) L -4.4
Explanation
4* ST. MARY’S over NEVADA
It might not sound sexy to call a team, a “Tough Out”, but in reality that is some of the highest praise that we can give on the college hardwoods. It also represents something that we will be looking for often over the next few months, those teams that bring the combination of coaching, defensive tenacity and depth that makes them hard to take out of a game. And that is exactly the case with Randy Bennett and his Gaels.

Since playing with mostly his own recruits the last three seasons Bennett has gone 5-2 ATS taking double figures, and they have been a little better than even those numbers show – the two non-covers came by only a basket each. And after controlling Nevada to the tune of 89-80 at home LY there is also no intimidation vs. this opponent. So why is the line so high? Let’s get to it -

The Gaels enter this game at 6-4, which does not raise any eyebrows. But take a closer look. They led San Diego State in the final minute of a one-point defeat on a neutral court. They led by seven at Seton Hall with 5:00 remaining before losing in overtime. They played Southern Cal to the final minute of a 69-63 road defeat despite shooting an abysmal 1-18 from 3-point range. They are just a couple of bounces away from being 8-2 or perhaps even 9-1, but close late failures had to be expected in the transition from the Daniel Kickert era – while the roster is filled with talent, there is not a go-to player at the end of close games. That does not matter for us here; all we want are the guys that can keep it close. And there are loads of them; Bennett has so much depth that no player averages more than 28 minutes per game, and seven go at least 20. They have excellent wing spans on the perimeter, and in 7-1 senior Blake Sholberg and emerging 6-11 redshirt freshman Omar Sanham there are also plenty of fouls to give against Nick Fazekas inside.

Now let’s fit in that defensive rotation against a Wolfpack squad that failed miserably to handle the pressure defense that U.N.L.V. threw at them in a decisive win on this court Saturday night (the Rebels led by as many as 21 points in the second half). St. Mary’s has harassed opposing offenses to the tune of only 40.3 percent shooting being allowing, and they have nearly forced twice as many turnovers (168) at the opposition has assists (85). Having struggled vs. similar tactics on Saturday we anticipate many of the same issues here, which leaves the home team hard pressed to merely get the win here, much less a margin.

League Pick Final Score W/L Units
NCAAB Pinnacle @ 133 -105 Golden Knights (63) at Minnesota (74) L -4.4
Explanation
4* CENTRAL FLORIDA/MINNESOTA Under
A Kirk Speraw/Jim Molinari matchup, with the lineups being sent to the court tonight, should never produce a total this high. But the oddsmakers were forced into a bad line, so we will take advantage.

It has not taken long for Molinari to put his stamp on the struggling Gophers – there is going to be an intense defensive effort every time out, with solid man-to-man principles, and even through what appears to be a disastrous start to the season they are allowing the opposition to shoot only 39.8 percent from the floor. That will only get better as he takes more control, and by dismissing assistant Bill Walker on Friday, one of the last remnants of the Dan Monson years, he is establishing himself as the guy in charge. Now he is also making a tactical move tonight that further helps our purposes.

Despite playing solid defense, the Gophers have been buried on the boards this season. Molinari will make a move that aids both areas tonight – instead of a three-guard lineup he will move power forward Dan Coleman to the #3 spot, and inserting 6-9 freshmen Bryce Webster into the starting lineup. This makes the defense formidable around the basket (few teams in Division I start a front-court in which every player is 6-9 or taller), while also eliminating the second chance points that have haunted them so far. And for us it also slows the game way down, and makes them less flexible on offense.

As for UCF, the oddsmakers are in a quandary. There is no secret to Speraw’s style of play for those that follow closely, and on the road LY his Golden Knights played to a 126.3 over 10 lined games, including such places as Florida, Kentucky and Memphis. So why is this so high? Largely because they have played the weakest schedule of any team in Division I so far, not leaving their home court and not facing a single team from outside the state of Florida. As such we put no stock whatsoever into their 85 points per game, and while the schedule has indeed contributed to the 34.3 percent shooting that they are allowing, this will once again be a tenacious defense – Speraw has a deep rotation that shows 10 players going at least 10 minutes per game, and no one playing more than 26, which means getting after the opposition for the full 40 minutes.

This will be ugly to watch, especially with the Knights aiming at foreign rims for the first time, with little fluid offense and many trips in which good shots can not be found. But cashing a ticket is always pretty.

12-13-2006, 08:46 AM	#9 (permalink)
BadCo Degenerate Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 371	He was 0-2 yesterday YESTERDAY'S PICKS League Pick Final Score W/L Units NCAAB Pinnacle @ 12.5 -106 Saint Mary's (58) at Nevada (76) L -4.4 Explanation 4* ST. MARY’S over NEVADA It might not sound sexy to call a team, a “Tough Out”, but in reality that is some of the highest praise that we can give on the college hardwoods. It also represents something that we will be looking for often over the next few months, those teams that bring the combination of coaching, defensive tenacity and depth that makes them hard to take out of a game. And that is exactly the case with Randy Bennett and his Gaels. Since playing with mostly his own recruits the last three seasons Bennett has gone 5-2 ATS taking double figures, and they have been a little better than even those numbers show – the two non-covers came by only a basket each. And after controlling Nevada to the tune of 89-80 at home LY there is also no intimidation vs. this opponent. So why is the line so high? Let’s get to it - The Gaels enter this game at 6-4, which does not raise any eyebrows. But take a closer look. They led San Diego State in the final minute of a one-point defeat on a neutral court. They led by seven at Seton Hall with 5:00 remaining before losing in overtime. They played Southern Cal to the final minute of a 69-63 road defeat despite shooting an abysmal 1-18 from 3-point range. They are just a couple of bounces away from being 8-2 or perhaps even 9-1, but close late failures had to be expected in the transition from the Daniel Kickert era – while the roster is filled with talent, there is not a go-to player at the end of close games. That does not matter for us here; all we want are the guys that can keep it close. And there are loads of them; Bennett has so much depth that no player averages more than 28 minutes per game, and seven go at least 20. They have excellent wing spans on the perimeter, and in 7-1 senior Blake Sholberg and emerging 6-11 redshirt freshman Omar Sanham there are also plenty of fouls to give against Nick Fazekas inside. Now let’s fit in that defensive rotation against a Wolfpack squad that failed miserably to handle the pressure defense that U.N.L.V. threw at them in a decisive win on this court Saturday night (the Rebels led by as many as 21 points in the second half). St. Mary’s has harassed opposing offenses to the tune of only 40.3 percent shooting being allowing, and they have nearly forced twice as many turnovers (168) at the opposition has assists (85). Having struggled vs. similar tactics on Saturday we anticipate many of the same issues here, which leaves the home team hard pressed to merely get the win here, much less a margin. League Pick Final Score W/L Units NCAAB Pinnacle @ 133 -105 Golden Knights (63) at Minnesota (74) L -4.4 Explanation 4* CENTRAL FLORIDA/MINNESOTA Under A Kirk Speraw/Jim Molinari matchup, with the lineups being sent to the court tonight, should never produce a total this high. But the oddsmakers were forced into a bad line, so we will take advantage. It has not taken long for Molinari to put his stamp on the struggling Gophers – there is going to be an intense defensive effort every time out, with solid man-to-man principles, and even through what appears to be a disastrous start to the season they are allowing the opposition to shoot only 39.8 percent from the floor. That will only get better as he takes more control, and by dismissing assistant Bill Walker on Friday, one of the last remnants of the Dan Monson years, he is establishing himself as the guy in charge. Now he is also making a tactical move tonight that further helps our purposes. Despite playing solid defense, the Gophers have been buried on the boards this season. Molinari will make a move that aids both areas tonight – instead of a three-guard lineup he will move power forward Dan Coleman to the #3 spot, and inserting 6-9 freshmen Bryce Webster into the starting lineup. This makes the defense formidable around the basket (few teams in Division I start a front-court in which every player is 6-9 or taller), while also eliminating the second chance points that have haunted them so far. And for us it also slows the game way down, and makes them less flexible on offense. As for UCF, the oddsmakers are in a quandary. There is no secret to Speraw’s style of play for those that follow closely, and on the road LY his Golden Knights played to a 126.3 over 10 lined games, including such places as Florida, Kentucky and Memphis. So why is this so high? Largely because they have played the weakest schedule of any team in Division I so far, not leaving their home court and not facing a single team from outside the state of Florida. As such we put no stock whatsoever into their 85 points per game, and while the schedule has indeed contributed to the 34.3 percent shooting that they are allowing, this will once again be a tenacious defense – Speraw has a deep rotation that shows 10 players going at least 10 minutes per game, and no one playing more than 26, which means getting after the opposition for the full 40 minutes. This will be ugly to watch, especially with the Knights aiming at foreign rims for the first time, with little fluid offense and many trips in which good shots can not be found. But cashing a ticket is always pretty.