Kentucky Derby thoughts
WOW 20 horse field! This is a tough race to lay mucho dinero on with that kind of bumping going on out of the gate. If a front runner or early speed horses can draw clear out of the gate they could put it away here.
Lets run em down!
#1 Sedgefield-Throwing him out...this is a horse that runs on the weeds.
#2 Curlin-Recorded a nice Beyer of 103 in the Arkansas Derby, but, what is more impressive to me is that top of stretch to wire run. He gained 12 lengths effortlessly!!! Add in the fact of a wet track and Curlin is offspring of Mr. Prospector. Very dangerous, I'll keep him...consider a bounce?
#3 Zanjero-Looks like a rabbit for the Asmussen barn...throw out.
#4 Storm in May-Finished out a nice exacta in the Arkansas Derby at 15-1 running second,but,lost by 10 to Curlin in that race
#5-Imawildandcrazyguy-Blind in one eye. Heart felt story for Kaplan but does not fit with these other 3 year olds.
#6-Cowtown Cat-One of five for Pletcher today. Talk about trying to corner the market. Nice romp in the Illinois Derby wiring the field. Hasn't broken a 100 beyer and that's a problem for me.
#7-Street Sense-Impressive horse BLOWOUT in the Breeders Cup juvenille recording a 108 beyer. Running decent this year beating anygivensaturday in the TB Derby and recording a 102 Beyer.
#8-Hard Spun-Could be my WIN ticket here. This horse has been odds-on in every start but last and has won by no less that 3 lengths in winning 5 of 6 LT. Been posting BULLET workouts and seems to like Churchill surface. Gets veteran Pino to navigate the voyage...maybe none better.
#9-Liquidity-Even with blinkers off does not entice me. Throw out
#10Teuflesberg-Has had more starts than any horse in this field. under .500 in the money and took awhile to get thrown into a maiden race to win. Not what was expected from this horse . Throw out.
#11-Bwana Bull-Outclassed here. Took 4 tries to break maiden and no impressive Beyers to speak of, Castellano is out of this early. Throw out
#12-Nobiz Like Shobiz-In the money every start with 4 being wins! Velasquez mounts up again so there must be something here. Odds-on in all but 1 race and has faced many in this field today. Will keep for exotics
#13-Sam P.-Another Pletcher horse with hot jockey Ramon Dominguez. Has faced a few of these opponents today but no wins over them and today is not the day to score. Equipment change with Blinkers off may let this horse move with more confidence, just feel he comes up short of the money. Lets move on
#14-Scat Daddy-Really like this horse even without a 100 Beyer figure. Ran 2nd to stablemate Circular Quay in the Hopeful G-1 event but didnt show in the rematch falling off by 15. I like the descision to keep Edgar Prado on this horse as he will get the best of of Scat here today. Wet track? This is the one as a Mr. Prospector offspring ..romped in maiden mud at Belmont.
#15-Tiago-Half brother to Giacamo and has similar talents. Consider shouldn't have had maiden win (won through DQ) in second try. Impressive that he was tied up in a 7 wide stretch run and was not bothered by getting dirt kicked up at Santa Anita. Kept the longshot family history going as a 15-1 shot winner in the Santa Anita Derby. Problem is this is the first race at an off track..Coming East as first time off of Santa Anita.
#16-Circular Quay-My 2nd favorite Pletcher horse in the field and Don't think the layoff will hinder at all. I always look for moves on the turn and this horse recorded a nice move in the LA Derby gaining 5 while 4 wide!! Continued to romp gaining 9 down the stretch and recorded a respectable 102. Loves this track at Churchill winning 2 of 3 here and coming 2nd as he was steadied in the Juvenille. Owners switched trainers from Pletcher then came right back and Velazquez keeps the faith by taking the mount today.
#17-Stormello-Not up to this class here and this horse is totally OWNED by many others in todays field. Throw out
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