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Old 07-19-2006, 01:49 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Updated: July 6, 2006








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Unheralded Parker has high value







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By KC Joyner

ESPN Insider

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Who was the best wide receiver in the NFL last season? When I rank receivers, I am looking for pass catchers with well-rounded skill sets. I want players who are both productive and efficient, but I place more emphasis on efficiency. I use this approach because to be both highly efficient and productive, you must have a wider variety of talents.

In ranking wide receiver efficiency, I use the same three criteria I used for tight ends in last week's rankings. The first two are TYPCA (total yards per catchable attempt) and success percentage. The third metric is derived by multiplying TYPCA by the wide receiver's success percentage. This combination metric provides the best overall balance between production and efficiency and is the one I used to determine who was the most efficient wide receiver. There is a 40-catch minimum to qualify.

I'll detail the top five receivers in this category, starting from the No. 5 spot and counting up to No. 1.

5. Joe Jurevicius, 7.0 yards. Everyone knows Jurevicius has good hands, so it would come as no shock that he ranked No. 1 in the success percentage category according to Scientific Football 2006 (now available for preorder at www.TheFootballScientist.com).

Success percentage alone won't place a receiver high in this category, though. A receiver usually also has to have a high yards per attempt on deeper passes, which was the really surprising part of Jurevicius' statistics. He had the seventh-highest yards per attempt on deep passes (20-plus yards) and had the 13th-highest yards per attempt on medium passes (11-20 yards).

4. Eric Parker, 7.2 yards. When you play on an offense that has LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Keenan McCardell, it can be awfully hard to get noticed, but Parker's numbers deserve some attention.

Parker had the second-highest success percentage last year, but a large portion of that success came on vertical passes. Parker had the third-highest pass success percentage at both the medium and the deep pass levels. He also had a very high short pass success percentage, ranking seventh in that category.

3. Eddie Kennison, 7.3 yards. Kennison is proof that a receiver doesn't have to rank near the top of the league in success percentage to be listed high in this metric. Kennison ranked second in the NFL in yards per attempt despite having only the 20th-highest success percentage. Kennison was especially deadly on deep passes, gaining an eye-popping 40.8-yard average on his successful deep pass plays.

2. Santana Moss, 7.6 yards. Moss was the deadliest deep threat in the NFL by far last year, averaging an astounding 26.4 yards per deep pass attempt. What makes this number even more impressive is that Moss did this despite being the Redskins' only deep threat. Moss was also successful on 63 percent of his deep passes, so it easily can be said he was the most efficient deep threat in the NFL last year.

1. Steve Smith, 7.7 yards. Smith was a viable MVP candidate for much of the season, as he was the epitome of an efficient and productive receiver. The best illustration of this was that Smith ranked first in the league in yards per attempt at both the short and medium pass depths. It is rare to have a receiver who can be just as effective running a hitch route as a deep in route, and Smith wasn't just effective at both. He was explosive.

Here are the top five receivers in each of the metric categories:

Yards Per Attempt

1. Santana Moss -- 11.4

2. Eddie Kennison -- 10.9

3. Steve Smith -- 10.7

4. Ernest Wilford -- 10.2

5. Terry Glenn -- 9.8

Success %

1. Joe Jurevicius -- 75.6%

2. Eric Parker -- 75.3%

3. Bobby Engram -- 73.1%

4. Steve Smith -- 72.4%

T5 Derrick Mason -- 71.9%

T5 Rod Smith -- 71.9% Success % x Yards Per Attempt

1. Steve Smith -- 7.7

2. Santana Moss -- 7.6

3. Eddie Kennison -- 7.3

4. Eric Parker -- 7.2

5. Joe Jurevicius -- 7.0



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Old 07-19-2006, 01:56 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Despite notching 30 sacks in the final two seasons of his career at the University of Louisville, and establishing a Division I-A record with 11 forced fumbles in 2005, Elvis Dumervil spiraled into the fourth round of this year's draft before the Denver Broncos tossed the defensive end a life preserver after 125 names had been called.



The primary reasons for the tumble: Dumervil's size -- or, more aptly, the lack thereof (5 feet 11 3/8, 257 pounds) -- and a pedestrian 40-yard time nearly into the 4.6s.



But rushing the passer, for some players, is a knack, one that supersedes "measurables." And that is why one of the more notable items elicited from the Broncos' three-day minicamp this week was that Dumervil was aligned inside at tackle, not end, in some of the nickel pass-rush combinations with which defensive coordinator Larry Coyer experimented.



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Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Elvis Dumervil leads the nation with 20 sacks in 2005.







Never mind that Dumervil, despite a thick physique, wasn't even considered big enough to play end, let alone tackle, by a lot of scouts who assessed him in the months before the draft. Increasingly, it seems, as teams seek new ways to create pressure strictly from the front four, speed is the premium, even at the tackle spots. And although Dumervil's stopwatch times might not be great, he possesses competitive closing speed when chasing down quarterbacks. For any defense, especially one that struggled to put quarterbacks on the ground the way the Denver unit did in 2005, that's a skill set that can't be ignored.



More teams around the league are moving ends inside on nickel downs, turning the pass rush into a track meet, one in which defenders who get out of the blocks quickly are highly valued. If the trend continues to evolve, teams might field nickel front fours that are more like relay teams.



It's not a new gimmick, of course, because almost nothing ever is in the NFL. A considerable portion of Reggie White's 198 career sacks came when he moved inside to tackle and was able to go against an overmatched guard. The New York Giants used to slide Michael Strahan inside on occasion earlier in his career. But White and Strahan (at least a few years ago, before he dropped some weight) were big men. Dumervil, by comparison, is pretty much a Munchkin.



It doesn't matter, though, if you can rush the passer.



The past several years, the Indianapolis Colts have nudged starting left end Raheem Brock to tackle in nickel situations even though he weighed just 270 pounds. This season, Brock will start at tackle even in the "base" defense, on what is one of the least bulky front four units in the league. Signed in free agency to play left end, Tony Weaver will move to tackle for the Houston Texans, in part because of the selection of Mario Williams with the top pick in the draft but also because the coaching staff seems to like the matchup possibilities that can be created inside. When he was the New Orleans head coach, Jim Haslett regularly dropped right end Darren Howard inside on nickel downs and frequently played four ends in his pass-rush front four. Expect similar alignments from the St. Louis Rams this year now that Haslett is the coordinator there. The Giants have worked this offseason on a nickel package that features four ends, in an effort to get quicker players such as Justin Tuck and rookie Mathias Kiwanuka onto the field.



The aim, especially for the Broncos, is to ramp up pressure without having to bring extra rushers.



In the AFC Championship Game loss to Pittsburgh six months ago, the Denver rush scheme was badly exposed when the Steelers consistently brought a tight end or wide receiver back in motion toward the formation, then kept that player in as an extra blocker against the blitz. Because the Broncos really had no big-time pass-rush threat -- all those former Cleveland Browns defensive line rejects, lauded for their solid play against the run in 2005, totaled 10 sacks -- they were forced to manufacture pressure. Even then, the Broncos finished with a mere 28 sacks, the NFL's fourth-lowest total.



Like the staffs of all the other franchises that didn't garner a Super Bowl ring in 2005, the Denver coaches went back to the drawing board in the offseason. Whatever changes were considered, none is probably rock-solid yet, but it's a good bet we'll see fewer blitzes in 2006 from Denver, less size up front in most nickel situations and more of pure pass-rushers like Dumervil.





Around the league
















Koren Robinson
dWide Receiver

Minnesota Vikings



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2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Rec Yds TD Avg Long YAC
22 347 1 15.8 80 110


• If the reports are true that Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Koren Robinson voluntarily checked into a South Carolina treatment clinic, as agent Alvin Keels has indicated, kudos to the Pro Bowl return specialist for taking steps to bolster his aftercare following a longtime problem with alcohol. At the Pro Bowl in January, Robinson spoke candidly, even eloquently at times, about his demons and acknowledged the need to keep confronting them and to keep girding himself with coping mechanisms. "Whatever I've done to get things turned around in my life," Robinson said at the time, "I've got to keep doing it." Hopefully, that's exactly what Robinson is doing now.



• Released by the Miami Dolphins this spring, after injuries limited him to only 15 appearances in the past two seasons combined, linebacker Junior Seau apparently wants to try to squeeze one more year out of a career that likely will land him in the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day. There have been unsubstantiated reports that Seau or his representative spoke with Oakland Raiders officials. but the consensus in most league circles is that the 12-time Pro Bowl performer stayed a year or two too long at the dance and should waltz gracefully into retirement. Seau is 37, and the 16-year veteran hasn't played a full season since 2001 and has averaged just 10.8 appearances since then. In 2004, his season was ended by a torn pectoral muscle; last year, it was an Achilles injury. But even before the injuries began to mount, Seau's game was in serious decline. Consider this: Since the beginning of the 2000 season, Seau totaled 11 sacks, four interceptions, four forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. That's just 20 big plays in 75 appearances, or one every 3.75 games. In his prime, Seau was an incredible freelancer, a defender who often played more on instinct than in the scheme but who was good enough to cover his own mistakes. But that prime seems like a long time ago, most personnel guys around the NFL agree.



• Offensive line depth in the NFL is an aim achieved by few teams. But few teams are as thin behind the starters as the Washington Redskins, and Job No. 1 in training camp for renowned offensive line coach Joe Bugel, arguably one of the best ever at that staff position, will be developing some backups. The five Washington starters -- left tackle Chris Samuels, left guard Derrick Dockery, center Casey Rabach, right guard Randy Thomas and right tackle Jon Jansen -- average 75.6 career starts. Thomas, Samuels and Jansen have more than 90 starts each, and only Rabach (39) has fewer than 40. After that, however, the depth chart gets a little murky. Arguably the top two candidates for backup tackle spots, Jim Molinaro and Tyson Walter, have started nine games between them. Walter hasn't started a game since 2002 and didn't play a snap last season. The top inside candidate, Mike Pucillo, has 18 starts. Of the 15 blockers on the current depth chart, six haven't played in an NFL game and one has appeared in just two contests. There are some promising blockers among the group of youngsters on the roster, and Bugel is going to have to develop a few of them fairly quickly.
















Dewayne White
dDefensive End

Tampa Bay Buccaneers



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2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Tot Ast Solo FF Sack Int
33 28 5 2 3 0


• In three seasons, Tampa Bay defensive end Dewayne White has started just five games, but look for his playing time to increase dramatically in 2006. The coaching staff thinks White, a second-round pick in 2003 who by all accounts had a terrific offseason, is poised for a breakthrough year. With starters Simeon Rice and Greg Spires in front of White, the coaches will have to divine a way to get him increased snaps, so he might be used more inside at tackle, where his quickness could create some interesting matchup advantages. White is a "long" athlete, a guy who plays taller then he really is, and seems to understand key nuances such as leverage and technique. He has nine sacks in fairly limited playing time in three seasons and could approach that total this year alone if the Bucs get him on the field.



• The Chicago Bears defense, which ranked second in the NFL in 2005, has a chance to be a pretty good unit for a few more years. Nine of the 11 starters are signed through 2007, and seven are under contract through 2008. The two pending unrestricted free agents for next spring are Pro Bowl weakside linebacker Lance Briggs and underrated tackle Ian Scott. Perhaps the most notable potential defection Chicago officials might have to fret about

is that of Ron Rivera. The defensive coordinator was a candidate for three head coach openings after the 2005 season and will continue to draw notice.



Stat of the week: The adage that teams "run to win" in the NFL might hold true, but they certainly don't run to win Super Bowl titles. Since the league adopted the 12-team playoff format in 1990, no franchise that led the NFL in rushing yards during the regular season has captured a Super Bowl championship. The Buffalo Bills, who led the NFL in rushing in 1991 and 1992, are the only rushing champions since 1990 to advance to a Super Bowl in that stretch. Three times since 1990, the NFL's top rushing team failed to even qualify for postseason play.



The last word: "We are getting ready to install the wishbone [formation]." -- starting quarterback Billy Volek, reacting to the pronouncement by coach Jeff Fisher that the Tennessee Titans intend to be a run-first offense in 2006.



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Old 07-21-2006, 06:06 AM   #3 (permalink)
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nice stuff,looking forward to more

thanks
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