Armani

With football camps starting in less than a month, teams are now being fully scrutinized for the upcoming season. Football bettors are also busy prepping for the action ahead. One of the key things to look at each preseason is a team’s schedule, since scheduling plays a large part in any successes or failures. StatFox has put its computers to work running the formulas to determine which teams have the easy or difficult slates. We’ll be analyzing the results in college for the next two days, then the pros on Saturday and Sunday. In this first of the two-part college piece, we look at the schedule breakdowns in the BCS conferences.

Note: Conference Rankings are given in order of degree of difficulty. For example, Florida State’s average opponent power rating for 2007 is 42.25, which is considered more difficult than Miami’s 39.50.

ACC
Hard Schedule – Florida State Easy Schedule – Virginia Tech

You have to wonder if the night Florida State lost to ACC champion Wake Forest (say that 10 times with conviction) 30-0 at Tallahassee, that venerable head coach Bobby Bowden decided enough was enough and changes had to be made in the coaching staff. Five assistants were sent packing and the same number came thru the door the other way. This will not be any easy transition year with just five home games (Alabama in Jacksonville) and a brutal November with trips to Boston College, Virginia Tech and Florida. Some oddsmakers see 16 returning starters plus both kickers and have made the Seminoles a favorite in the conference; it could easily be tough times again in Tallahassee. Virginia Tech has removed some of the bad elements out of the program and is situated to make a serious run again in the ACC with toughest games at home, save Clemson and Georgia Tech. They are +250 to win ACC and other than game at LSU figure to be 11-1 or 10-2 headed to conference title game.

ACC Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. FLORIDA ST: 42.25 -(#6 of 119)
2. DUKE: 42.23 -(#7 of 119)
3. BOSTON COLLEGE: 41.64 -(#10 of 119)
4. MIAMI: 39.5 -(#31 of 119)
5. N CAROLINA: 39 -(#34 of 119)
6. WAKE FOREST: 38.92 -(#36 of 119)
7. MARYLAND: 38.67 -(#37 of 119)
8. NC STATE: 38.5 -(#40 of 119)
9. CLEMSON: 38.25 -(#42 of 119)
10. VIRGINIA: 38 -(#45 of 119)
11. GEORGIA TECH: 37.83 -(#47 of 119)
12. VIRGINIA TECH: 37.75 -(#49 of 119)

Big 12
Hard Schedule – Nebraska Easy Schedule – Kansas

The burden of proof falls to transfer QB Sam Keller to lead Nebraska back to Big 12 title game with just 13 returning starters. Much of this will be new to the Arizona State transfer except for the Sept.15 home game against likely top ranked USC. The week before, they will travel to Wake Forest to face their diversified offense. Big 12 play shows road games at Missouri and at Texas, plus November trips to improving Kansas and Colorado. The Huskers are +350 to snag conference crown. Kansas head coach Mark Mangino is hoping a year of experience for his 16 returning lettermen will make the difference after they lost four leads in the second half. (Two in 4th quarter) Four home non-conference games against inferior opponents and not having Texas or Oklahoma on the gridiron schedule should all but guarantee the Jayhawks return to a bowl game this season.

Big 12 Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. NEBRASKA: 43.42 -(#4 of 119)
2. COLORADO: 40.83 -(#17 of 119)
3. IOWA ST: 40.33 -(#19 of 119)
4. TEXAS A&M: 40.17 -(#22 of 119)
5. OKLAHOMA ST: 39.83 -(#25 of 119)
6. BAYLOR: 39.5 -(#29 of 119)
7. TEXAS: 39 -(#35 of 119)
8. KANSAS ST: 38.25 -(#43 of 119)
9. MISSOURI: 38 -(#44 of 119)
10. OKLAHOMA: 37.25 -(#50 of 119)
11. TEXAS TECH: 36.75 -(#55 of 119)
12. KANSAS: 33.83 -(#73 of 119)

Big East
Hard Schedule – West Virginia Easy Schedule – Rutgers

It was a banner year for the Big East since its reconfiguration and they hope the good fortune continues, presumably with three Top 20 teams in preseason polls. Rutgers magical 11-2 was punctuated by destroying Kansas State in Texas Bowl. With QB Mike Teel and All Big East RB Ron Rice back, another special season could be on tap. The first five games are at Rutgers Stadium (7of 8) and they will be favored in each one. Conference contenders South Florida and West Virginia are at home with only season ending game at Louisville looking real negative. The Mountaineers will be ranked in the Top Five in almost every poll with 16 starters back, including QB Patrick White and RB Steve Slaton. Rick Rodriguez has the toughest schedule in the league; however is not that overbearing at #28 overall with this much talent. At Maryland always presents a challenge as will road trips to South Florida, Rutgers and Cincinnati. The Mountaineers are showing up +1200 (4th choice) to be BCS champions.

Big East Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. W VIRGINIA: 39.64 -(#27 of 119)
2. PITTSBURGH: 37.93 -(#46 of 119)
3. SYRACUSE: 37.23 -(#51 of 119)
4. CINCINNATI: 37.15 -(#52 of 119)
5. CONNECTICUT: 35.33 -(#62 of 119)
6. LOUISVILLE: 35.15 -(#64 of 119)
7. S FLORIDA: 34.54 -(#68 of 119)
8. RUTGERS: 33.08 -(#79 of 119)

Big Ten
Hard Schedule – Michigan State Easy Schedule – Northwestern

Another attempt at rebuilding in East Lansing as former Ohio State assistant and Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio takes over. Dantonio is more low key and tough minded and will need to be a big influence after the three opening home games. The road schedule may be as difficult as any in college football, highlighted with contests at Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa. Home games at Spartan Stadium will be no picnics with Michigan and Penn State wearing road uniforms in November. After a conventional off-season, second year head coach Pat Fitzgerald is positioned to be battling with Michigan State for a lower tier bowl game. The Wildcats return 15 starters, including juniors Tyrell Sutton at running back and signal caller C.J. Bacher. Northwestern should be favored in all four non-Big Ten tilts and be competitive all conference home games including Michigan. Most intriguing contest should be against the Spartans after they blew a 35-point lead at home last season losing 41-38 as 9.5-point underdogs.

Big Ten Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. MICHIGAN ST: 41.42 -(#12 of 119)
2. ILLINOIS: 39.83 -(#24 of 119)
3. PURDUE: 38.58 -(#38 of 119)
4. MICHIGAN: 37.83 -(#48 of 119)
5. IOWA: 37.08 -(#53 of 119)
6. WISCONSIN: 36.83 -(#54 of 119)
7. OHIO ST: 35.75 -(#57 of 119)
8. PENN ST: 35.75 -(#58 of 119)
9. INDIANA: 35.42 -(#61 of 119)
10. MINNESOTA: 35.25 -(#63 of 119)
11. NORTHWESTERN: 34.83 -(#65 of 119)

Pac 10
Hard Schedule – Washington Easy Schedule – California

While California may have the easiest schedule in the Pac-10, it is anything but simple ranking 22nd in the StatFox rankings. Hosting Louisiana Tech and at Colorado State should produce easy victories. A home revenge opener against Tennessee will draw immediate attention and the conference slate will have enough landmines, nonetheless if the Bears play up to expectations the +200 second choice to win the Pac-10 could be in reach being the home team against USC. Perception is a tricky thing, as third year coach Tyrone Willingham has the same record after two seasons as the coach who was fired before him Keith Gilbertson (7-16). As all signs are pointing to improvement, the schedule is brutal and considered the most imposing in the country. Starting with the second game of the season, it reads like this; Boise State, Ohio State, at UCLA, USC, at Arizona State. It closes with home games against Cal and in-state rival Washington, followed by a trip to the islands to take on a very good Hawaii team. Chances of a Huskies bowl game, Aloha.

Pac 10 Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. WASHINGTON: 46 -(#1 of 119)
2. STANFORD: 45 -(#2 of 119)
3. UCLA: 44.83 -(#3 of 119)
4. OREGON: 43.33 -(#5 of 119)
5. WASHINGTON ST: 41.67 -(#9 of 119)
6. ARIZONA: 41.25 -(#13 of 119)
7. USC: 41.17 -(#14 of 119)
8. ARIZONA ST: 40.92 -(#15 of 119)
9. OREGON ST: 40.83 -(#18 of 119)
10. CALIFORNIA: 40.25 -(#21 of 119)

SEC
Hard Schedule – Vanderbilt Easy Schedule – Arkansas

It’s a good thing Vanderbilt scheduled Richmond and Eastern Michigan this season, because the rest of games are treacherous. While few teams will have the experience the Commodores have (18 starters back), few will have to play at Auburn, at South Carolina, at Florida and at Tennessee. Home games with Alabama and Georgia, plus a non-conference closing game with Wake Forest spells trouble at Vandy. Arkansas has arguably the softest slate in the SEC and they will need it. Hard to find two better running backs than Darren McFadden and Felix Jones on one team, unfortunately a grand total of just 10 starters are back for this campaign, including four on defense. The four non-conference games would make would make Syracuse hoops headmaster Jim Boeheim plush. The Hogs will be favored in all home games, and road ventures to Bama, Tennessee and LSU are spread out. Houston Nutt’s squad is +300 (third pick) to win SEC West.

SEC Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. VANDERBILT: 41.45 -(#11 of 119)
2. TENNESSEE: 40.92 -(#16 of 119)
3. KENTUCKY: 40.33 -(#20 of 119)
4. OLE MISS: 39.93 -(#23 of 119)
5. S CAROLINA: 39.75 -(#26 of 119)
6. MISSISSIPPI ST: 39.54 -(#28 of 119)
7. GEORGIA: 39.5 -(#30 of 119)
8. AUBURN: 39.33 -(#32 of 119)
9. ALABAMA: 39.17 -(#33 of 119)
10. LSU: 38.54 -(#39 of 119)
11. FLORIDA: 38.33 -(#41 of 119)
12. ARKANSAS: 34.17 -(#71 of 119)


In the second half of our series analyzing the schedules for each college football team for the 2007 season, we look at the non-BCS Conferences. Last year it was Boise State that capitalized on a soft set of opponents to make it all the way to Phoenix and the Fiesta Bowl. While there, all the Broncos did was upset Oklahoma in the "Game of the Year". Are any schools lined up for the same type of success this year? Another team from the WAC could fit the bill...Hawaii, which boasts the nation's easiest schedule and perhaps the best quarterback as well.

Conference USA
Hard Schedule – Central Florida Easy Schedule – Memphis

Central Florida has good news- bad news scenario setting up. On September 15, the Golden Knights will unveil brand new on-campus stadium, which will seat a manageable 45,000. For the opening game, the opponent for the grand event is the Texas Longhorns, OUCH. UCF also has a date at N.C. State, plus three toilsome conference road contests at East Carolina, South Florida and Southern Miss. By October everyone will know how good or bad the Memphis Tigers are based on non-conference schedule and trip to Orlando to take UCF. Coach Tommy West is proving again to be an inept recruiter and Memphis will need to play the likes of Jacksonville State, Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State in hopes of having a .500 season. The Tigers play three of last four games at home against the alphabet contingent trying to get above mediocrity. (ECU, UAB, SMU)

Conf-USA Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. UCF: 34.42 -(#69 of 119)
2. E CAROLINA: 34.25 -(#70 of 119)
3. MARSHALL: 33.17 -(#77 of 119)
4. RICE: 32.67 -(#82 of 119)
5. UAB: 31.67 -(#84 of 119)
6. TULSA: 31.42 -(#85 of 119)
7. SMU: 31.33 -(#86 of 119)
8. UTEP: 29.92 -(#94 of 119)
9. TULANE: 29.83 -(#96 of 119)
10. SOUTHERN MISS: 28.92 -(#103 of 119)
11. HOUSTON: 28.75 -(#104 of 119)
12. MEMPHIS: 26.08 -(#115 of 119)

MAC
Hard Schedule – Ea. Michigan Easy Schedule – Ohio U.

The Mid-American Conference returns a ton of players off a weak year for this league and Eastern Michigan is tied for the third most with 17 starters back in the fold. Having to hit the highway to face Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt and Michigan means they could be exhausted come the rest of the season. Most experts even with so many players back don’t see the Eagles flying above last place in the MAC West. Frank Solich has Ohio U. competitive again making it to the MAC title game last season. With a little success he also has taught the school how to make up non-conference schedules just like he did at Nebraska. One really compelling team (Virginia Tech), two so-so teams (ULL and Wyoming) and one bunny (Gardner-Webb). The Bobcats should be favored in every conference home tilt, with a late season contest at Akron likely the most wearisome road venture.

MAC Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. E MICHIGAN: 32.42 -(#83 of 119)
2. N ILLINOIS: 30.91 -(#90 of 119)
3. W MICHIGAN: 30.83 -(#91 of 119)
4. BUFFALO: 30.67 -(#92 of 119)
5. C MICHIGAN: 29.75 -(#97 of 119)
6. MIAMI OHIO: 29.75 -(#98 of 119)
7. BALL ST: 29.67 -(#100 of 119)
8. KENT ST: 28.42 -(#105 of 119)
9. TEMPLE: 27.92 -(#106 of 119)
10. TOLEDO: 27.75 -(#108 of 119)
11. AKRON: 27.46 -(#111 of 119)
12. BOWLING GREEN: 26.5 -(#114 of 119)
13. OHIO U: 24 -(#119 of 119)

Mountain West
Hard Schedule – UNLV Easy Schedule – New Mexico

The Mountain West Conference has been assembling solid teams at the top of the league the last several years with Utah, TCU and BYU be formidable conference champs. New Mexico is trying to break on through to the other side and join the party. Coach Rocky Long has taken the Lobos bowling four times since arriving in Albuquerque in 1999. New Mexico has 18 starters back on campus and the Lobos should start 3-1 with game at Arizona most onerous. The road slate is not simple, nonetheless another minor bowl possible. UNLV coach Mike Sanford has four wins in two seasons and will be lucky to have number five by October. With the basketball team capturing Sin City’s attention again, the football program needs to move swiftly to prevent greater apathy and playing mostly to all the out of town gamblers from the schools of Wisconsin, Hawaii and Utah won’t help. That is followed by annual rivalry at Nevada and closes at TCU and New Mexico. Another coach looking for work?

Mountain West Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. UNLV: 36.67 -(#56 of 119)
2. UTAH: 35.75 -(#59 of 119)
3. SAN DIEGO ST: 34.83 -(#66 of 119)
4. COLORADO ST: 34.75 -(#67 of 119)
5. TCU: 33.92 -(#72 of 119)
6. WYOMING: 33.83 -(#75 of 119)
7. AIR FORCE: 33.08 -(#78 of 119)
8. BYU: 32.75 -(#81 of 119)
9. NEW MEXICO: 31.08 -(#89 of 119)

Sun Belt
Hard Schedule – Florida Int. Easy Schedule – UL-LaFayette

The Sun Belt after seven seasons of football is not yet ready to have own TV network, however two bowl teams like last season is a step in the right direction. New Florida International head coach Mario Cristobal is the fall guy from a scheduling standpoint trying to keep from drowning after 0-12 season from past regime. The first four non-conference contests have them playing Penn State, Maryland, Miami-Fl and Kansas. After week two home game with the Terps, six or next seven are road adventures. It’s impossible to say any Sun Belt team has really easy schedule, since they are sacrificial lambs for the most part for the BCS schools, but ULL has Ohio U. and McNeese State at home, along with conference pick Troy and hated rival Monroe at LaFayette.

Sun Belt Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. FLA INTERNATIONAL: 32.83 -(#80 of 119)
2. FLA ATLANTIC: 31.15 -(#88 of 119)
3. TROY: 29.92 -(#95 of 119)
4. ARKANSAS ST: 29.38 -(#101 of 119)
5. MIDDLE TENN ST: 27.92 -(#107 of 119)
6. NORTH TEXAS: 27.62 -(#109 of 119)
7. LA MONROE: 27.17 -(#112 of 119)
8. LA LAFAYETTE: 25.15 -(#117 of 119)

WAC
Hard Schedule – Utah State Easy Schedule – Hawaii

This could be the year Hawaii breaks the stranglehold of Boise State’s death grip on the WAC. With success comes the unfortunate aspect of teams not desiring to come to our 50th state and wanting home and home match-ups. The Warriors have a legitimate Heisman candidate in senior QB Colt Brennan and were forced to scrounge up lower division teams Northern Colorado and Charleston Southern to fill out schedule. The most demanding road game will be at Nevada and if they escape that contest they could be unbeaten heading into November 23 home game with Boise State. Utah State has been a scheduling favorite of better teams as encounters at Wyoming, at Utah and at Oklahoma proves. Having 19 starters back from 1-11 (3-9 ATS) doesn’t mean much after they lost by 27.7 PPG.

WAC Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. UTAH ST: 33.83 -(#74 of 119)
2. LOUISIANA TECH: 33.5 -(#76 of 119)
3. IDAHO: 31.31 -(#87 of 119)
4. FRESNO ST: 30.42 -(#93 of 119)
5. SAN JOSE ST: 29.33 -(#102 of 119)
6. NEVADA: 27.58 -(#110 of 119)
7. BOISE ST: 26.67 -(#113 of 119)
8. NEW MEXICO ST: 26 -(#116 of 119)
9. HAWAII: 24.55 -(#118 of 119)

Independents
Hard Schedule – Notre Dame Easy Schedule – Navy

With Temple having jettisoned the Independent ranks for the Mid-American Conference, there are only three division-1A teams remaining that have no league affiliation. Regardless, you could probably write this same schedule analysis year after year for the Independent teams. Notre Dame, as always, plays the bitterly tough schedule, squaring off versus the likes of USC, Michigan, Penn State, UCLA, and more. Navy on the other hand, scheduled lightly once again. Army is somewhere in between.

Independents Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. NOTRE DAME: 41.67 -(#8 of 119)
2. ARMY: 35.64 -(#60 of 119)
3. NAVY: 29.75 -(#99 of 119)

__________________
http://www.tsgnet.com/pres.php?id=46...f=Bsnboj&altl=