Fat So

I thought I would share a little work I did on the Cappers from You Win Now. By the records alone, it seems that some of the exclusive Cappers from the site are kicking ass in most sports, but are they really as good as they claim? The following numbers are based on the records provided for the Cappers from the You Win Now website, and it's accuracy is only a reflection of the accuracy of the numbers provided by the site. Cappers with a losing/break even record, and those with small sample sizes have been omitted from this exercise. Only data for MLB and NBA are included.

Here is an example of the layout of the data:

Andrew Powers
MLB 22-11 = 66.7% / PWR = 51%
NBA 26-9 = 74.3% / PWR = 59%

From the above, we can conclude the following. To date, since providing picks on the You Win Now website, Andrew Powers has had 22 wins and 11 losses in the MLB for a Win Rate of 66.7%. PWR stands for Probable Win Rate, and ultimately reflectss the Capper's Win Rate at a 95% certainty. I won't bore you with the details, but from the above, we can conclude that we are 95% certain that Andrew possesses a Win Rate of at least 51% in the MLB. In the NBA, Andrew has provided 26 wins and 9 losses, for a W% of 74.3. And we are 95% certain that Andrew's true winning percentage in the NBA is at least 59%.

Kelly bettor's would do well with finding statistically significant win rates when calculating bet sizes.

I'd like to add one note before providing my results. In the MLB, because we don't have standard vig when dealing with money lines, it is particularly difficult to determine the true success of any handicapper. The problem of not knowing the average price a Capper lays on an MLB bet prevents us from calculating EV properly. To err on the side of caution, I usually assume that any MLB Capper without detailed betting records, lay an average of -140 on any given MLB bet. That is probably higher than average, but caution is a good thing. The break even Win Rate when laying -140 on a wager is 58.33%... If you are laying -140 on an MLB wager, you would need a Win Rate of ~61% to have the same amount of EV you would get when laying -110 at a Win Rate of 55%.


Records are as of May 14th, 2008

Computer Crushers
MLB 171-90 = 65.5% / PWR = 60%
NBA 167-107 = 61% / PWR = 56%

Dr Baseball
MLB 246 - 126 = 66.1% / PWR = 62%

Elite Sports Circle
MLB 166-70 = 70.3% / PWR = 65%
NBA 130-66 = 66.3% / PWR = 60%

Insider's Sports Network
MLB 147-67 = 68.7% / PWR = 63%
NBA 89-50 = 64% / PWR = 57%

Kevin Francis
MLB 117-57 = 67.2% / PWR = 61%
NBA 87-41 = 68% / PWR = 61%

Rocco Vincintore
MLB 274-144 = 65.6% / PWR = 62%
NBA 212-146 = 59.2% / PWR = 55%

Steam Online
MLB 274-153 = 64.2% / PWR = 60%
NBA 184-103 = 64.1% / PWR = 59%

System Sports
MLB 107-50 = 68.2% / PWR = 62%
NBA 120-70 = 63.2% / PWR = 57%

The Consensus Group
MLB 329-174 = 65.4% / PWR = 62%
NBA 227-130 = 63.6% / PWR = 59%

The Experts
MLB 180-80 = 69.2% / PWR = 65%
NBA 77-42 = 64.7% / PWR = 57%

The Hammer
MLB 211-122 = 63.4% / PWR = 59%
NBA 116-77 = 60.1% / PWR = 54%

The Hitman
MLB 239-120 = 66.6% / PWR = 62%
NBA 91-53 = 63.2% / PWR = 56%

The Hoops Guru
NBA 179-120 = 59.9% / PWR = 55%

The Millionaire's Club
MLB 53-23 = 69.7% / PWR = 60%
NBA 50-24 = 67.6% / PWR = 58%

William Kidd
MLB 250-115 = 68.5% / PWR = 64%
NBA 123-76 = 61.8% / PWR = 56%

Winner's Inc
MLB 163-75 = 68.5% / PWR = 63%
NBA 88-40 = 68.8% / PWR = 61%

Wise Guy Insider
MLB 72-35 = 67.3% / PWR = 59%
NBA 40-20 = 66.7% / PWR = 55%

Based on the above data, our top 5 handicappers by sport from the above selection is as follows:

MLB:
1) The Experts / PWR = 65%
2) Elite Sports Circle / PWR = 65%
3) William Kidd / PWR = 64%
4) Winner's Inc / PWR = 63%
5) Insider's Sports Network / PWR = 63%
* Dr Baseball, Rocco Vincintore, System Sports, The Consensus Group and The Hitman all come in close at a PWR of 62%

NBA:
1) Winner's Inc / PWR = 61%
2) Kevin Francis / PWR = 61%
3) Elite Sports Cirlce / PWR = 60%
4-5) Andrew Powers, Steam Online and The Consensus Group will all tie with a PWR of 59%

Lastly, please note that the above data will likely change as time goes by, and our sample sizes change. However, I doubt that they will skew too far away from where they're at now.

Win lots.. stay cool!