gc- kentucky derby thread- - Sports handicapping Forum

golden contender · 05-03-2007, 07:14 PM

im not gonna bore everyone with long writeups on each horse- im going to do like i do evey year, im gonna throw horses out who dont match the criteria of a derby winner- THE FIRST IS THE FAVORITE CURLIN, DERBY FAVS RARELY WIN, AND YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR A PRICE- HORSES WHO HAVENT RACED AS A 2 YEAROLD HAVENT WON S-1915- PLUS FAVS RARELY WIN- I WILL CONYTINUE TO UPDATE AS I THROW MORE HORSES OUT AND CAP THE PAST PERFORMANCES BOL GC-

mudder · 05-04-2007, 07:02 AM

thanx GC, i already played Scat Daddy at 10-1, i'd like your opinion on this horse, if i may...

thanx mudder.......

golden contender · 05-04-2007, 09:06 PM

well mudder, i like the fact that hes one of three who has a win on an off track- and i hear the track is wet- and theres rain for tomorrow, i will use him in my exotics-

golden contender · 05-04-2007, 09:07 PM

im not using any horse to win, that hasnt raced in the last 4 weeks- and thats a lot- i just capped the race fron the past performances, but now i have to adjust what im doing because of the weather- ill be back-

golden contender · 05-05-2007, 12:31 AM

Im Done- Ive Looked At This Race From A Number Of Different Ways, And If Street Sense Didnt Have That Derby Jinx Of Needing More Than 2 Prep Races Going Ag Him I Would Have Taken His As His 108 Career Best Beyer Is The Highest Of Any In Here, But Horse With Only 2 Prep Races Have Won Once In 20 Years, And Great Hunter Is Another Who I Cant Bet To Win Because Of This- Nobizlikeshowbiz Who I Like Alot And Has All The Credentials Simply Isnt Fast Enough Like Most In Here- Scat Daddy Also Not Fast Enough,despite A Good Career So Far, So That Leves Me With A Horse Who Was Almost As Good As Street Sense In His Last, Has Run A Shade Below Him In The Beyers, But Did Not Get Disqualified For Anything Else Has A Decent Post, And Had Dirt Kicked In His Face And Still Gained Lenghts In The Stretch, Which Means Hes Battle Tested,and Sitting On A Big Race- My Win Bet Is On Anygivensaturday- And These Horses Behind Him For Exactas And Triples- Streetsense, Nobizshobiz, Liquidity,scatdaddy, Samp-, Im Gonna Box Some Triples And Maybe A Super- But Im Not Gonna Stray From These- Bol Gc-

golden contender · 05-05-2007, 01:07 AM

tomlinson ratings in- wet track? anygiven,has highest rating, as a horse who would be most likeky to win in slop due to his sire distorted humor, funny cides dad too- plus i forgot to mention he is a dual qualifer in the dosage free weights- bol gc-

len · 05-05-2007, 06:06 AM

Like the pick GC. Think he bounced in the Wood and will rebound. The off track helps him. Only concern is the outside post.

the_sheriff · 05-05-2007, 09:04 AM

Its seems that youve done the work and narrowed the field down, which is all you can ask for. Picking the winner out of a field of 20 is extremely difficult. How many folks have a hard time picking the winner against the spread for any given NBA playoff game, now add 18 other outcomes.

I know plenty about gambling, but next to nothing on playing horses. Anygiven is matched up h2h -145 against Great Hunter. Odds a little high but wanted to get your thoughts on it.

GL with your plays today GC.

Gus Bus · 05-05-2007, 10:01 AM

WOW 20 horse field! This is a tough race to lay mucho dinero on with that kind of bumping going on out of the gate. If a front runner or early speed horses can draw clear out of the gate they could put it away here.

Lets run em down!

#1 Sedgefield-Throwing him out...this is a horse that runs on the weeds.

#2 Curlin-Recorded a nice Beyer of 103 in the Arkansas Derby, but, what is more impressive to me is that top of stretch to wire run. He gained 12 lengths effortlessly!!! Add in the fact of a wet track and Curlin is offspring of Mr. Prospector. Very dangerous, I'll keep him...consider a bounce?

#3 Zanjero-Looks like a rabbit for the Asmussen barn...throw out.

#4 Storm in May-Finished out a nice exacta in the Arkansas Derby at 15-1 running second,but,lost by 10 to Curlin in that race

#5-Imawildandcrazyguy-Blind in one eye. Heart felt story for Kaplan but does not fit with these other 3 year olds.

#6-Cowtown Cat-One of five for Pletcher today. Talk about trying to corner the market. Nice romp in the Illinois Derby wiring the field. Hasn't broken a 100 beyer and that's a problem for me.

#7-Street Sense-Impressive horse BLOWOUT in the Breeders Cup juvenille recording a 108 beyer. Running decent this year beating anygivensaturday in the TB Derby and recording a 102 Beyer.

#8-Hard Spun-Could be my WIN ticket here. This horse has been odds-on in every start but last and has won by no less that 3 lengths in winning 5 of 6 LT. Been posting BULLET workouts and seems to like Churchill surface. Gets veteran Pino to navigate the voyage...maybe none better.

#9-Liquidity-Even with blinkers off does not entice me. Throw out

#10Teuflesberg-Has had more starts than any horse in this field. under .500 in the money and took awhile to get thrown into a maiden race to win. Not what was expected from this horse . Throw out.

#11-Bwana Bull-Outclassed here. Took 4 tries to break maiden and no impressive Beyers to speak of, Castellano is out of this early. Throw out

#12-Nobiz Like Shobiz-In the money every start with 4 being wins! Velasquez mounts up again so there must be something here. Odds-on in all but 1 race and has faced many in this field today. Will keep for exotics

#13-Sam P.-Another Pletcher horse with hot jockey Ramon Dominguez. Has faced a few of these opponents today but no wins over them and today is not the day to score. Equipment change with Blinkers off may let this horse move with more confidence, just feel he comes up short of the money. Lets move on

#14-Scat Daddy-Really like this horse even without a 100 Beyer figure. Ran 2nd to stablemate Circular Quay in the Hopeful G-1 event but didnt show in the rematch falling off by 15. I like the descision to keep Edgar Prado on this horse as he will get the best of of Scat here today. Wet track? This is the one as a Mr. Prospector offspring ..romped in maiden mud at Belmont.

#15-Tiago-Half brother to Giacamo and has similar talents. Consider shouldn't have had maiden win (won through DQ) in second try. Impressive that he was tied up in a 7 wide stretch run and was not bothered by getting dirt kicked up at Santa Anita. Kept the longshot family history going as a 15-1 shot winner in the Santa Anita Derby. Problem is this is the first race at an off track..Coming East as first time off of Santa Anita.

#16-Circular Quay-My 2nd favorite Pletcher horse in the field and Don't think the layoff will hinder at all. I always look for moves on the turn and this horse recorded a nice move in the LA Derby gaining 5 while 4 wide!! Continued to romp gaining 9 down the stretch and recorded a respectable 102. Loves this track at Churchill winning 2 of 3 here and coming 2nd as he was steadied in the Juvenille. Owners switched trainers from Pletcher then came right back and Velazquez keeps the faith by taking the mount today.

#17-Stormello-Not up to this class here and this horse is totally OWNED by many others in todays field. Throw out

Gus Bus · 05-05-2007, 10:24 AM

#18-Any Given Saturday-Owners paid the price for this one and have returned only 33% of their investment. A win today would change that in a big way. This horse has the breeding and class to get the roses round the neck but has Pletcher done enough to help his cause? This horse has the best mud numbers at 458 but has never ran on a wet track,so, unproven. No graded stakes wins concerns me allthough close,losing by a nose and then by a half length.

#19-Dominican-2 wins in 2007 and impressive running 7 wide in the Bluegrass while tackling Street Sense and Zanjero. Could be there in the end as Bejarno is 2-0 on the back of this Mr. Greeley product.

#20 Great Hunter-Could return to the winners circle off of the bounce effort at Keenland. Very familiar with foes today and Nakatani back aboard. Numbers say that this horse doesn't have the class to stick with these but actual races say different. Coming out of a bad post position many will skip over him here as he looks like a fill in. Any horse that has earned close to 800k at this age is worth a look for me. Kenny Mayne hopefully does not put the ESPN jinx on him here. lol

OFFICIAL SELECTIONS COMING UP!

Gus Bus · 05-05-2007, 01:29 PM

After mulling over the card here are my selections.

WIN-#16 Circular Quay

Pletcher gets his derby win. Notice that jockey Velazquez chose to ride this horse in option of the #18 Any Given Saturday.

PLACE-#8 Hard Spun

Firing bullets and looks fit to compete here

SHOW-#18 Any Given Saturday

Only one of two horses in this field to score 2 100+ Beyers.

Good Luck!

golden contender · 05-05-2007, 02:57 PM

sheriff, i like it- i have alot of head to heads i like- but im not willing to risk units form my main bankroll to cover these plays- the wagering i did for k.derby comes from other funds- and is not as much as a unit rated sports play- as for you gus anything can happen, and i like cirquay, just not today as he hasnt raced much- and if im gonna buck one of these derby trends the horse had better run triple digit beyer the last 3 and be far and away a better horse than whats in here,and hes not- any given, nobiz,s.sense,scatdaddy, are my tops=bol gc-

Gus Bus · 05-05-2007, 03:38 PM

GC,

Good Luck. I understand the layoff angle,but,in all races I don't consider them stale unless 90 day layoff. I agree this is a crapshoot and I will take my chances with #16. Layoff didn't bother Barbaro last year and he actually was fresh. Circlular Quay is about 2 weeks layoff longer than Barbaro last season but can't get past Johnnys choice of mounts.

PS. hope everything is well with your arangement with Red Zone...just do not limit yourself to one service. You have the potential to be a syndicated handicapper across the web. 5 or 6 incomes are better than one,even if you give up a point or two.

05-03-2007, 07:14 PM	#1 (permalink)
golden contender Degenerate Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 1,305	gc- kentucky derby thread- im not gonna bore everyone with long writeups on each horse- im going to do like i do evey year, im gonna throw horses out who dont match the criteria of a derby winner- THE FIRST IS THE FAVORITE CURLIN, DERBY FAVS RARELY WIN, AND YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR A PRICE- HORSES WHO HAVENT RACED AS A 2 YEAROLD HAVENT WON S-1915- PLUS FAVS RARELY WIN- I WILL CONYTINUE TO UPDATE AS I THROW MORE HORSES OUT AND CAP THE PAST PERFORMANCES BOL GC-

05-05-2007, 10:01 AM	#9 (permalink)
Gus Bus Wise Guy Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 67	Kentucky Derby thoughts WOW 20 horse field! This is a tough race to lay mucho dinero on with that kind of bumping going on out of the gate. If a front runner or early speed horses can draw clear out of the gate they could put it away here. Lets run em down! #1 Sedgefield-Throwing him out...this is a horse that runs on the weeds. #2 Curlin-Recorded a nice Beyer of 103 in the Arkansas Derby, but, what is more impressive to me is that top of stretch to wire run. He gained 12 lengths effortlessly!!! Add in the fact of a wet track and Curlin is offspring of Mr. Prospector. Very dangerous, I'll keep him...consider a bounce? #3 Zanjero-Looks like a rabbit for the Asmussen barn...throw out. #4 Storm in May-Finished out a nice exacta in the Arkansas Derby at 15-1 running second,but,lost by 10 to Curlin in that race #5-Imawildandcrazyguy-Blind in one eye. Heart felt story for Kaplan but does not fit with these other 3 year olds. #6-Cowtown Cat-One of five for Pletcher today. Talk about trying to corner the market. Nice romp in the Illinois Derby wiring the field. Hasn't broken a 100 beyer and that's a problem for me. #7-Street Sense-Impressive horse BLOWOUT in the Breeders Cup juvenille recording a 108 beyer. Running decent this year beating anygivensaturday in the TB Derby and recording a 102 Beyer. #8-Hard Spun-Could be my WIN ticket here. This horse has been odds-on in every start but last and has won by no less that 3 lengths in winning 5 of 6 LT. Been posting BULLET workouts and seems to like Churchill surface. Gets veteran Pino to navigate the voyage...maybe none better. #9-Liquidity-Even with blinkers off does not entice me. Throw out #10Teuflesberg-Has had more starts than any horse in this field. under .500 in the money and took awhile to get thrown into a maiden race to win. Not what was expected from this horse . Throw out. #11-Bwana Bull-Outclassed here. Took 4 tries to break maiden and no impressive Beyers to speak of, Castellano is out of this early. Throw out #12-Nobiz Like Shobiz-In the money every start with 4 being wins! Velasquez mounts up again so there must be something here. Odds-on in all but 1 race and has faced many in this field today. Will keep for exotics #13-Sam P.-Another Pletcher horse with hot jockey Ramon Dominguez. Has faced a few of these opponents today but no wins over them and today is not the day to score. Equipment change with Blinkers off may let this horse move with more confidence, just feel he comes up short of the money. Lets move on #14-Scat Daddy-Really like this horse even without a 100 Beyer figure. Ran 2nd to stablemate Circular Quay in the Hopeful G-1 event but didnt show in the rematch falling off by 15. I like the descision to keep Edgar Prado on this horse as he will get the best of of Scat here today. Wet track? This is the one as a Mr. Prospector offspring ..romped in maiden mud at Belmont. #15-Tiago-Half brother to Giacamo and has similar talents. Consider shouldn't have had maiden win (won through DQ) in second try. Impressive that he was tied up in a 7 wide stretch run and was not bothered by getting dirt kicked up at Santa Anita. Kept the longshot family history going as a 15-1 shot winner in the Santa Anita Derby. Problem is this is the first race at an off track..Coming East as first time off of Santa Anita. #16-Circular Quay-My 2nd favorite Pletcher horse in the field and Don't think the layoff will hinder at all. I always look for moves on the turn and this horse recorded a nice move in the LA Derby gaining 5 while 4 wide!! Continued to romp gaining 9 down the stretch and recorded a respectable 102. Loves this track at Churchill winning 2 of 3 here and coming 2nd as he was steadied in the Juvenille. Owners switched trainers from Pletcher then came right back and Velazquez keeps the faith by taking the mount today. #17-Stormello-Not up to this class here and this horse is totally OWNED by many others in todays field. Throw out

05-05-2007, 01:29 PM	#11 (permalink)
Gus Bus Wise Guy Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 67	Official Selections After mulling over the card here are my selections. WIN-#16 Circular Quay Pletcher gets his derby win. Notice that jockey Velazquez chose to ride this horse in option of the #18 Any Given Saturday. PLACE-#8 Hard Spun Firing bullets and looks fit to compete here SHOW-#18 Any Given Saturday Only one of two horses in this field to score 2 100+ Beyers. Good Luck!

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05-04-2007, 07:02 AM	#2 (permalink)
mudder Rookie Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 32	thanx GC, i already played Scat Daddy at 10-1, i'd like your opinion on this horse, if i may... thanx mudder.......

05-04-2007, 09:06 PM	#3 (permalink)
golden contender Degenerate Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 1,305	well mudder, i like the fact that hes one of three who has a win on an off track- and i hear the track is wet- and theres rain for tomorrow, i will use him in my exotics-

05-04-2007, 09:07 PM	#4 (permalink)
golden contender Degenerate Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 1,305	im not using any horse to win, that hasnt raced in the last 4 weeks- and thats a lot- i just capped the race fron the past performances, but now i have to adjust what im doing because of the weather- ill be back-

05-05-2007, 12:31 AM	#5 (permalink)
golden contender Degenerate Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 1,305	Im Done- Ive Looked At This Race From A Number Of Different Ways, And If Street Sense Didnt Have That Derby Jinx Of Needing More Than 2 Prep Races Going Ag Him I Would Have Taken His As His 108 Career Best Beyer Is The Highest Of Any In Here, But Horse With Only 2 Prep Races Have Won Once In 20 Years, And Great Hunter Is Another Who I Cant Bet To Win Because Of This- Nobizlikeshowbiz Who I Like Alot And Has All The Credentials Simply Isnt Fast Enough Like Most In Here- Scat Daddy Also Not Fast Enough,despite A Good Career So Far, So That Leves Me With A Horse Who Was Almost As Good As Street Sense In His Last, Has Run A Shade Below Him In The Beyers, But Did Not Get Disqualified For Anything Else Has A Decent Post, And Had Dirt Kicked In His Face And Still Gained Lenghts In The Stretch, Which Means Hes Battle Tested,and Sitting On A Big Race- My Win Bet Is On Anygivensaturday- And These Horses Behind Him For Exactas And Triples- Streetsense, Nobizshobiz, Liquidity,scatdaddy, Samp-, Im Gonna Box Some Triples And Maybe A Super- But Im Not Gonna Stray From These- Bol Gc-

05-05-2007, 01:07 AM	#6 (permalink)
golden contender Degenerate Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 1,305	tomlinson ratings in- wet track? anygiven,has highest rating, as a horse who would be most likeky to win in slop due to his sire distorted humor, funny cides dad too- plus i forgot to mention he is a dual qualifer in the dosage free weights- bol gc-

05-05-2007, 06:06 AM	#7 (permalink)
len Rookie Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 66	Like the pick GC. Think he bounced in the Wood and will rebound. The off track helps him. Only concern is the outside post.

05-05-2007, 09:04 AM	#8 (permalink)
the_sheriff Rookie Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 33	Its seems that youve done the work and narrowed the field down, which is all you can ask for. Picking the winner out of a field of 20 is extremely difficult. How many folks have a hard time picking the winner against the spread for any given NBA playoff game, now add 18 other outcomes. I know plenty about gambling, but next to nothing on playing horses. Anygiven is matched up h2h -145 against Great Hunter. Odds a little high but wanted to get your thoughts on it. GL with your plays today GC.

05-05-2007, 10:24 AM	#10 (permalink)
Gus Bus Wise Guy Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 67	#18-Any Given Saturday-Owners paid the price for this one and have returned only 33% of their investment. A win today would change that in a big way. This horse has the breeding and class to get the roses round the neck but has Pletcher done enough to help his cause? This horse has the best mud numbers at 458 but has never ran on a wet track,so, unproven. No graded stakes wins concerns me allthough close,losing by a nose and then by a half length. #19-Dominican-2 wins in 2007 and impressive running 7 wide in the Bluegrass while tackling Street Sense and Zanjero. Could be there in the end as Bejarno is 2-0 on the back of this Mr. Greeley product. #20 Great Hunter-Could return to the winners circle off of the bounce effort at Keenland. Very familiar with foes today and Nakatani back aboard. Numbers say that this horse doesn't have the class to stick with these but actual races say different. Coming out of a bad post position many will skip over him here as he looks like a fill in. Any horse that has earned close to 800k at this age is worth a look for me. Kenny Mayne hopefully does not put the ESPN jinx on him here. lol OFFICIAL SELECTIONS COMING UP!

05-05-2007, 02:57 PM	#12 (permalink)
golden contender Degenerate Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 1,305	sheriff, i like it- i have alot of head to heads i like- but im not willing to risk units form my main bankroll to cover these plays- the wagering i did for k.derby comes from other funds- and is not as much as a unit rated sports play- as for you gus anything can happen, and i like cirquay, just not today as he hasnt raced much- and if im gonna buck one of these derby trends the horse had better run triple digit beyer the last 3 and be far and away a better horse than whats in here,and hes not- any given, nobiz,s.sense,scatdaddy, are my tops=bol gc-

05-05-2007, 03:38 PM	#13 (permalink)
Gus Bus Wise Guy Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 67	GC, Good Luck. I understand the layoff angle,but,in all races I don't consider them stale unless 90 day layoff. I agree this is a crapshoot and I will take my chances with #16. Layoff didn't bother Barbaro last year and he actually was fresh. Circlular Quay is about 2 weeks layoff longer than Barbaro last season but can't get past Johnnys choice of mounts. PS. hope everything is well with your arangement with Red Zone...just do not limit yourself to one service. You have the potential to be a syndicated handicapper across the web. 5 or 6 incomes are better than one,even if you give up a point or two.