Information To Help You Bet Very Informative - Sports handicapping Forum

bandam · 10-29-2007, 01:50 PM

Recently a colleague of mine Steve Makinen wrote a mind-opening article regarding the benefits of keeping track of yards per pass attempt in the NFL for picking winners in office pools and for sports wagering purposes. This piece showed why it makes since to follow the best teams in YPPA and go against the teams that perform poorly in this area. While I am in complete agreement with Steve in this territory, I find the subject too limiting in its context and would like to share another topic that plays into what Steve has said, yet offers a broader picture overall with similar or even better results for wagering purposes.

I must say first, as opposed to my distinguished pal, I’m a big proponent of running the ball. Teams’ that run the ball 26 or more times in the NFL, in today’s game, cover the spread better than 79 percent of the time. (Note –The number 26 is benchmark, if both teams exceed that total, take the team with higher figure.) One statistical analysis which has been around for a couple of decades, yet does not receive much play is yards per point or YPPT. What this measures is the total effectiveness of a team’s offense to score points in relationship to yards gained. Too put it in simplest terms, how you beat another team is by outscoring them. (I know, Tim McCarver obvious) This can be done by throwing effectively and by running efficiently. To figure this just take the number of yards a team gains in a game and divide by the number of points they scored. Or just go to the StatFox NFL page for FREE and have the work already done for you.

Truthfully, even though I was aware these numbers, I never gave them proper due until I became a StatFox customer many seasons ago. What I found is after every team has played four games in a season, this can really be an additional valuable tool. What these numbers reflect is any team’s ability to score points based on yardage gained in a specific contest. For example, New England leads the NFL in scoring and in total offense, thus it would stand to reason, they would be the best team in the league in YPPT. Contrast those consistent numbers with Denver, who finally covered the spread for the first time this season against Pittsburgh. The Broncos are 5th in total offense at 358.3 yards per game, however are a dismal 30th in the league at 20.3 YPPT. Jay Cutler by appearances will be a fine NFL quarterback, maybe even a great one, but as young player he will make mistakes. With a turnover differential of -3 on the season for the Broncos and a suspect defense that can not force many three and outs, this mean’s no matter how smart Mike Shanahan is as coach, if his offense has to continually go 60 yards or more to score touchdowns, the points will be harder to come by compared to a team that creates more turnovers or can alter field position with a strong defense.

Here is a list of the current top five teams against the spread and yards per point number.

1) New England 7-0 (10.9)
2) Indianapolis 4-2 (12.4)
3) Dallas 4-2 (12.4)
4) Cleveland 4-2 (12.7)
5) NY Giants 5-2 (13)

As good as the yards per pass attempt group actually are at 23-11, 67.6 percent against the spread, this contingent is right now even more productive at 25-8 ATS, 75.7 percent. Over time these numbers will come down, as oddsmakers adjust and different teams float in and out for any number of reasons.

The same is true for bad teams that can not score, either because they can’t move the ball or they can’t put it in the end zone without solid quarterback play. Here is the list of the bottom feeders in the league and their spread record.

28) New Orleans 1-5 (18.9)
29) Kansas City 4-2 (20.2)
30) Denver 1-5 (20.3)
31) Atlanta 3-3-1 (21.8)
32) St. Louis 1-6 (24.3)

At 10-21 ATS, 32.2 percent, this compares very favorably to what the YPPA grouping that is 9-21 ATS, with the difference being how the bye weeks have fallen for particular teams.

All of these figures are not one year wonders either, as the savvy bettor can make a surfeit of riches choosing situations wisely. Last season playing on San Diego, Chicago, New England, Dallas and Buffalo would have brought home a return of 57.6 percent on 45-33-2 ATS record. Conversely, playing against Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Tampa Bay and Oakland would have framed 59.8 percent winners at 46-31. In 2005, the top and bottom five would have netted an even higher percentage in each situation. The Play On teams were 46-31 and Play Against clubs were 47-32 for a combined sound percentage of 61.5 percent.

The better the information you have, the easier it is to go to battle against the linemakers.

REPRINTED THIS IS SOMETHING I READ...

sprtfrk · 11-02-2007, 10:36 PM

While I also appreciate the value of this article and others like it, I always conclude after reading them that if it were, in fact, this easy, and all you had to do was follow the program, wouldn't someone have figured this out long ago. I mean people have been betting on these games for a long time. I had heard about the yards per pass attempt angle. I have never put much stock in the rushing attempts theory because most teamsare accumulating that stat while playing against the clock at the end of games instead of against the opponent. I have to agree the yards per point is an interesting point of view but to blindly follow any system usually leads to too many plays and ultimately, the vig winning out. Once again, that is just my opinion.

sphinky25 · 11-03-2007, 06:01 AM

Good point sprtfrk. I do believe the above reasoning could be a valuable tool or something to think about when you are rating your plays you have decided on. It is never good to blindly play a system for the sake of playing it. Every bettor should pick their spots wisely in order to be successful. Applying thinking like this to up your ante, lower it, or remove it all together makes sense.

10-29-2007, 01:50 PM	#1 (permalink)
bandam Rookie Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 63	Information To Help You Bet Very Informative Recently a colleague of mine Steve Makinen wrote a mind-opening article regarding the benefits of keeping track of yards per pass attempt in the NFL for picking winners in office pools and for sports wagering purposes. This piece showed why it makes since to follow the best teams in YPPA and go against the teams that perform poorly in this area. While I am in complete agreement with Steve in this territory, I find the subject too limiting in its context and would like to share another topic that plays into what Steve has said, yet offers a broader picture overall with similar or even better results for wagering purposes. I must say first, as opposed to my distinguished pal, I’m a big proponent of running the ball. Teams’ that run the ball 26 or more times in the NFL, in today’s game, cover the spread better than 79 percent of the time. (Note –The number 26 is benchmark, if both teams exceed that total, take the team with higher figure.) One statistical analysis which has been around for a couple of decades, yet does not receive much play is yards per point or YPPT. What this measures is the total effectiveness of a team’s offense to score points in relationship to yards gained. Too put it in simplest terms, how you beat another team is by outscoring them. (I know, Tim McCarver obvious) This can be done by throwing effectively and by running efficiently. To figure this just take the number of yards a team gains in a game and divide by the number of points they scored. Or just go to the StatFox NFL page for FREE and have the work already done for you. Truthfully, even though I was aware these numbers, I never gave them proper due until I became a StatFox customer many seasons ago. What I found is after every team has played four games in a season, this can really be an additional valuable tool. What these numbers reflect is any team’s ability to score points based on yardage gained in a specific contest. For example, New England leads the NFL in scoring and in total offense, thus it would stand to reason, they would be the best team in the league in YPPT. Contrast those consistent numbers with Denver, who finally covered the spread for the first time this season against Pittsburgh. The Broncos are 5th in total offense at 358.3 yards per game, however are a dismal 30th in the league at 20.3 YPPT. Jay Cutler by appearances will be a fine NFL quarterback, maybe even a great one, but as young player he will make mistakes. With a turnover differential of -3 on the season for the Broncos and a suspect defense that can not force many three and outs, this mean’s no matter how smart Mike Shanahan is as coach, if his offense has to continually go 60 yards or more to score touchdowns, the points will be harder to come by compared to a team that creates more turnovers or can alter field position with a strong defense. Here is a list of the current top five teams against the spread and yards per point number. 1) New England 7-0 (10.9) 2) Indianapolis 4-2 (12.4) 3) Dallas 4-2 (12.4) 4) Cleveland 4-2 (12.7) 5) NY Giants 5-2 (13) As good as the yards per pass attempt group actually are at 23-11, 67.6 percent against the spread, this contingent is right now even more productive at 25-8 ATS, 75.7 percent. Over time these numbers will come down, as oddsmakers adjust and different teams float in and out for any number of reasons. The same is true for bad teams that can not score, either because they can’t move the ball or they can’t put it in the end zone without solid quarterback play. Here is the list of the bottom feeders in the league and their spread record. 28) New Orleans 1-5 (18.9) 29) Kansas City 4-2 (20.2) 30) Denver 1-5 (20.3) 31) Atlanta 3-3-1 (21.8) 32) St. Louis 1-6 (24.3) At 10-21 ATS, 32.2 percent, this compares very favorably to what the YPPA grouping that is 9-21 ATS, with the difference being how the bye weeks have fallen for particular teams. All of these figures are not one year wonders either, as the savvy bettor can make a surfeit of riches choosing situations wisely. Last season playing on San Diego, Chicago, New England, Dallas and Buffalo would have brought home a return of 57.6 percent on 45-33-2 ATS record. Conversely, playing against Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Tampa Bay and Oakland would have framed 59.8 percent winners at 46-31. In 2005, the top and bottom five would have netted an even higher percentage in each situation. The Play On teams were 46-31 and Play Against clubs were 47-32 for a combined sound percentage of 61.5 percent. The better the information you have, the easier it is to go to battle against the linemakers. REPRINTED THIS IS SOMETHING I READ...

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11-02-2007, 10:36 PM	#2 (permalink)
sprtfrk Rookie Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 57	While I also appreciate the value of this article and others like it, I always conclude after reading them that if it were, in fact, this easy, and all you had to do was follow the program, wouldn't someone have figured this out long ago. I mean people have been betting on these games for a long time. I had heard about the yards per pass attempt angle. I have never put much stock in the rushing attempts theory because most teamsare accumulating that stat while playing against the clock at the end of games instead of against the opponent. I have to agree the yards per point is an interesting point of view but to blindly follow any system usually leads to too many plays and ultimately, the vig winning out. Once again, that is just my opinion.

11-03-2007, 06:01 AM	#3 (permalink)
sphinky25 Rookie Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 4	Good point sprtfrk. I do believe the above reasoning could be a valuable tool or something to think about when you are rating your plays you have decided on. It is never good to blindly play a system for the sake of playing it. Every bettor should pick their spots wisely in order to be successful. Applying thinking like this to up your ante, lower it, or remove it all together makes sense.