BadCo

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Rams and Colts. Now they're back with a second look.

The Colts should enter this game a lot healthier than the Rams. As of Thursday afternoon, the Colts did not have a starter or key backup listed as "out" or "doubtful," and their only starter that is even "questionable" is FS Bob Sanders. In comparison, the Rams likely will be without WR Isaac Bruce (doubtful, toe), who has missed the last two games, and also have two key starters listed as questionable in WR Torry Holt (knee) and DC DeJuan Groce (hamstring).
The Rams can overcome the loss of Bruce because they have good depth at the wide receiver position with Kevin Curtis, Shaun McDonald and Dane Looker. However, if Holt is unable to play, or if he is significantly affected by the knee injury, it will be almost impossible for the Rams to keep up with the Colts.

Holt is one of the best in the league in terms of his route-running skills and finding soft spots in a zone scheme like the one the Rams will face at Indy. Furthermore, he has great timing with QB Marc Bulger, who relies on Holt when the pocket starts to collapse or when opponents come after him with a heavy blitz. Against a Colts' pass rush that leads the NFL with 20 sacks, Bulger cannot afford for his security blanket to be watching from the sideline. McDonald, Curtis and Looker are very good in their roles as secondary targets, but none of them have the experience or route-running savvy to consistently get Bulger out of trouble like Holt can.

• The Rams have to do a better job of protecting Bulger, who has been sacked 20 times in five games. The team seems to have settled on a starting offensive line rotation, which includes ROG Adam Timmerman and rookie ROT Alex Barron. However, offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild, who will take over the play-calling in coach Mike Martz's absence, needs to play a big role in this area.

The Rams simply do not have the athletes along their offensive line to keep the Colts' explosive defensive front-four out of Bulger's face on their own. Fairchild needs to mix in more runs with RB Steven Jackson and also needs to use Jackson and RB Marshall Faulk more on draws and screens in order to exploit the Colts if they get upfield too quickly. Bulger will be in for a nightmarish experience if he doesn't get more help from the running game and is forced to take too many seven-step drops as a pocket passer against what has become one of the league's fastest defensive units.

• Bulger is getting more help from his tight ends this season, which is a positive heading into a game versus a Colts' defense that uses a lot of cover-2 zone. If healthy enough to play, Holt will draw a lot of cheated-safety help over the top, and Curtis has the speed to draw the other safety over toward the sideline. If Bulger can hit on a couple of sideline routes early on in this game, safeties Sanders and Mike Doss might start to cheat -- and that's when the deep middle opens up for TEs Brandon Manumaleuna, Jeff Robinson and Cameron Cleeland.

• Colts' RB Edgerrin James will not find much running room inside this week, as the three-DT rotation of Ryan Pickett, Jimmy Kennedy and Damione Lewis does a great job of clogging gaps and freeing up LBs Chris Claiborne and Dexter Coakley to roam. However, the Rams are undersized at defensive end, where Leonard Little, Tony Hargrove, Tyoka Jackson and Brandon Green are being used in a four-man wave. If OTs Tarik Glenn and Ryan Diem do an effective job of using their massive size advantages to seal off the Rams' defensive ends, there will be some big-chunk opportunities for James to exploit on the ground.

• Rams' DC Travis Fisher is struggling in coverage. He is a quick, cover corner with good change-of-direction skills, but he lacks great size, strength and instincts. Against Seattle, Fisher was beaten deep on a post-route by second-year WR D.J. Hackett and was called for pass interference on the play. The Colts do not have a wide receiver with the type of size to attack Fisher, but look for QB Peyton Manning to target Fisher when he catches the Rams leaving the 5-10, 189-pound cornerback on an island.

• The other issue the Rams pass defense is experiencing is a ridiculous amount of miscommunication. Groce and FS Michael Hawthorne were left shouting at one another after a breakdown led to a touchdown for the Seahawks last week. The unit also had a huge breakdown underneath that led to a 24-yard score for Joe Jurevicius on a drag route. If those same blown assignments occur within their primarily zone-coverage scheme on Monday night, Manning and his intelligent, savvy corps of receivers will absolutely torch the Rams' secondary via the air.

Special Teams
The Rams have a slight advantage in the return game, despite Shaun McDonald averaging a meager 4.2 yards per punt return. Chris Johnson has emerged as one of the league's bright young stars at the KOR position. The third-year pro is averaging 24.9 yards per return, including a 99-yard touchdown return.

The Colts, on the other hand, cannot seem to get things going in either aspect of their return game. Dominic Rhodes and Ran Carthon are splitting attempts in the KOR game and are averaging a combined 20.4 yards per return. Troy Walters flashes some explosiveness as a PR specialist but is averaging just 4.8 yards per return with a long of 12 yards.

The Colts do, however, have a sizeable advantage in the kicking game, which is why we give them the edge overall on special teams. PK Mike Vanderjagt is a perfect 5-for-5 on field goal attempts. PT Hunter Smith continues to be a consistent weapon, averaging 43.4 yards per attempt while landing 10 of 21 inside the 20-yard line.

Rams PK Jeff Wilkins has been solid this season, connecting on 8 of 9 FGAs, but none have come from 50 yards or beyond. The team's biggest area of weakness is in the punting game, where rookie Reggie Hodges is averaging just 38 yards per attempt and has landed only three of his 22 attempts inside the 20-yard line.

Matchups
• Indianapolis WR Marvin Harrison vs. St. Louis LDC DeJuan Groce
• Indianapolis ROT Ryan Diem vs. St. Louis LDE Leonard Little
• Indianapolis RB Edgerrin James vs. St. Louis WLB Dexter Coakley
• St. Louis WR Torry Holt vs. Indianapolis RDC Jason David
• St. Louis LOT Orlando Pace vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney


Scouts' Edge
Monday Night Football travels to Indianapolis in Week 7 for what should be an outright aerial assault between the reeling Rams and the undefeated Colts. Manning will garner more media attention, but Bulger is the trigger man for a passing attack that is averaging 78.8 more yards per game than that of the Colts.

The problem, however, is the Rams simply cannot stop anybody. Bulger will do a good job of spreading the ball around to his various weapons, and the Rams will put up a few touchdowns against a much-improved Colts' defense. But keeping up with Indy's balanced offensive attack at home will be an impossible task.

The Rams' biggest defensive weakness is in their secondary, so expect huge performances from Harrison, Wayne, Stokley and Clark via the air. The Colts eventually will out-gun the Martz-less Rams in what will be a record-breaking evening for the Manning-to-Harrison connection.

Prediction: Colts 33, Rams 24

Rams at Colts
The Colts should enter this game a lot healthier than the Rams. As of Thursday afternoon, the Colts did not have a starter or key backup listed as "out" or "doubtful," and their only starter that is even "questionable" is FS Bob Sanders. In comparison, the Rams likely will be without WR Isaac Bruce (doubtful, toe), who has missed the last two games, and also have two key starters listed as questionable in WR Torry Holt (knee) and DC DeJuan Groce (hamstring).








Why To Watch
The Rams draw a tough assignment in their first outing without head coach Mike Martz, who is taking a leave of absence due to a bacterial infection of the heart. In his place, assistant head coach Joe Vitt will step up as the team's top decision-maker. Vitt gets no honeymoon period with a trip to Indianapolis to take on the NFL's lone undefeated team in its own backyard.
QB Marc Bulger, WR Torry Holt and the rest of the Rams' passing attack is in high-gear, but the rest of the team has seemingly fallen by the wayside. The story for the Colts so far this season has been the much improved play of their defense. However, the focus will shift on Monday Night Football, as QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison will look to break the NFL record for most touchdowns by a quarterback-wide receiver tandem, which is currently owned by Steve Young and Jerry Rice (85). Against a Rams' secondary that has been exploited for 10 passing touchdowns already this season, it promises to be a record-breaking Monday night in Indy.


When the Rams have the ball
Rushing: Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild will take over the controls, but do not expect much of a change in philosophy on Sunday Fairchild is a Martz' disciple, who has spent the last three years coaching under his tutelage. The Rams have the second fewest rushing attempts per game (20.2) this season and that total is not going to go up much with Fairchild calling the shots for the undetermined future.

The Rams employ a lot of multiple-receiver sets on offense and will occasionally mix in the run in order to keep opponents' honest. Last week, for example, RB Stephen Jackson took his 17 carries for 77 yards and no other running back saw a carry in that game.

The thing that the Rams need to guard against, however, is the fact that the Colts are much more effective defending the pass than they are versus the run. Make no mistake; the Colts are improved from a season ago in this facet, but they still lack ideal size and strength up front, and are susceptible versus opponents who show a willingness to keep their attack grounded.

Passing: If the Rams ignore the signs, it could become a long afternoon for Bulger and their passing game. There is no question that the Rams can do some damage in the air. Bulger is connecting on 64.7 percent of his throws and he is getting help from a multitude of skill members, including WRs Holt, Shaun McDonald, Kevin Curtis and Dane Looker, RB Jackson and TEs Brandon Manumaleuna and Cameron Cleeland.

Holt does some of his best work against opposing secondaries that employ a majority of zone coverage looks, and he certainly will be able to pick on DCs Nick Harper and Jason David if ever left alone on an island versus either of them. However, Bulger needs time to throw and for his receivers to get open, and pass protection becomes a frightening thing against a Colts' defense that currently leads the NFL with 20 sacks. The Colts defense as a whole has not given up more than 10 points in five outings.

They are getting explosively quick play from their defensive line, which has accounted for 19 of those aforementioned 20 sacks. LOT Orlando Pace might be able to keep RDE Dwight Freeney in check, but LDE Raheem Brock will cause all sorts of problems for struggling rookie ROT Alex Barron, and the interior "wave" of Corey Simon, Larry Tripplett, Montae Reagor and Brock (on passing downs) should prove to be too much for the Rams' aging interior offensive line to handle.

When the Colts have the ball
Rushing: The Colts continue to do a good job of balancing out their offensive attack. They have not had great success running the football this season, but stay dedicated to the ground game in order to keep opposing defenses honest and set up the play-action passing series for Manning.

RB Edgerrin James is handling almost all of the offensive carries and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry this season. He continues to show good initial burst, body control and vision as a runner, but the holes are not consistently opening up for him like they have in past seasons. Things won't get any easier this week against a St. Louis run defense that has held up its end of the bargain.

The Rams are getting stout play from the interior trio of DTs Jimmy Kennedy, Ryan Pickett and Damione Lewis. Pickett is the starter at NT and will give OC Jeff Saturday all he can handle physically. Kennedy also will create a problem for LOG Ryan Lilja, who gives up 40 pounds in this matchup. Because of all the attention that will need to be given inside, MLB Chris Claiborne and WLB Dexter Coakley should have lots of free lanes to take advantage of when pursuing James from sideline-to-sideline.

The Rams are extremely athletic on the perimeter, with DEs Leonard Little and Tony Hargrove. But because both ends have a tendency to get upfield too quickly looking for the quarterback as pass rushers, off-tackle lanes open up on counters, zone cutback runs and even on outside draws. In order to supplement the run, look for James to be used more this week on screens and draws that help to exploit opposing defensive lines that tend to be over-aggressive.

Passing: This unit-versus-unit matchup is the biggest mismatch of Monday night's game. So far this season Manning has not been as efficient as he has been in past years, but he is heating up just at the wrong time for a Rams' secondary that ranks among the league's most inept.

The Rams only chance of limiting Manning is to get constant pressure on him from their front-four. Little and Hargrove do present some issues in terms of matchups, but the Colts also do a great job of using their backs and tight ends to chip threatening perimeter pass rushers before releasing on shorter routes. They also keep their offensive attack so balanced that it will be difficult for Little and Hargrove to get the clean releases, and to be as aggressive as they usually are as edge rushers.

If Manning even gets a decent amount of time to throw in this game, it has all the makings of an aerial explosion. Harrison has the quickness and savvy to exploit the inexperienced DeJuan Groce at the left cornerback position. Furthermore, Harrison does most of his best work versus zone coverage and should be able to pick apart a secondary that lacks great safety help downfield and consistently has battled communication problems.

Look for the Rams to roll a lot of their coverages to Harrison's side in an attempt to bottle up Manning's most dangerous receiver. When they do so, that's when WRs Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley, TE Dallas Clark and RB James will need to step up as secondary targets. Stokley is coming off a six-catch game and seems to be getting more involved after a three-week lull.

Wayne has consistently provided the big play when opposing defenses fail to give him the respect he deserves. And if the Rams get caught cheating their safeties too close to the sideline in deep support versus Harrison and Wayne, that's when Clark can become a deadly weapon as a seam-stretching pass-catcher from the H-back/TE position.