pinnacle info - Sports handicapping Forum

jaguilar · 10-19-2005, 05:43 PM

Pinnacle Pulse
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com
by Simon Noble
10/19/2005 2:06PM EST

Welcome to the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at PinnacleSports.com look to give you an insider’s view of the point spread movement on key games each week and provide you with a little gambling theory to help you find a smarter way to bet courtesy of Pinnacle Sports.

Texas Tech (+15.5) at Texas
Both teams are 6-0 overall and 3-0 in the Big 12. Both teams' offenses appear statistically insane with Tech averaging 53.7 points per game and 573 yards of offense, while Texas averages 46.7 points and 494.5 yards per game. However, there are a couple of big differences between the in-state rivals.

First, Texas has the #1 pass defense in the Big 12, allowing under 148 passing yards per game. Second, Tech's schedule has been much easier thus far - games against Florida International, Sam Houston State, and Indiana State have inflated their statistics. By comparison, Sagarin rates Tech's schedule as the 138th most difficult in the nation compared to 46th for Texas.

This week, we opened this game at Texas -12 and got pounded by Texas backers. Within four minutes we were at -14. We are still seeing mostly Longhorn money, but the line is stabilizing near 15.5/16. Interestingly, we started taking action on this game in July when we opened it as one of our Marquee match-ups. At that time, we opened it at +10.5 and Tech backers pushed the line down to 9.5.

Auburn (+6.5) at LSU
The last five meetings between these two teams have been won by the home team and only one of those was decided by less than 13 points. Both teams have one loss, but LSU has played stronger teams, overcoming Florida and Arizona State (while losing to Tennessee). We opened the game on Sunday at +6.5 and have been taking heavy, balanced action ever since.

As another game that was featured as one of our College Football Marquee match-ups in July, we opened the line at -6 (-105) and took balanced action then as well. There has been little in way of line movement since then and it seems as though our opener was strong.

Baltimore at Chicago O/U 30.5
There has only been one NFL game in the last 20 years that closed with a total under 31. In 1994, Chicago defeated Arizona 19-16 when the game had a total of 30.5. As of Wednesday morning, the under is priced at 30.5 -111. Why is this game so low?

From a yards per play analysis, Baltimore and Chicago have the #1 and #2 defenses allowing approximately 4.3 yards per play each. Offensively, they rate #29 and #26 respectively with 4.1 and 4.7 yards per play. Both have rushed for more than 100 yards per game. Combine outstanding defenses with poor rush-based offenses and you get the lowest game total of all time. What is the lowest scoring NFL game in the last 20 years? In 2003, the Jets beat the Steelers 6-0 (with a total of 38.5).

We opened this game at 32 flat and immediately saw sharp action on the under. We had some smaller players taking the over at plus money selling points. Several professional scalpers played over 30.5 (+106), but up until now the sharps are neutral at the current number.

Indianapolis (-15) at Houston
Most sharps shudder at the thought of laying more than 7 points in the NFL in any match-up and would rather play large dogs. I know many pros who won't lay more than 7 points no matter how good it looks. On the other side are the "public" bettors who are unafraid to lay any number. For that group, Indy has been a covering machine and they are now 8-4 against the spread in the last two years when favored by more than 7 points.

Houston is the NFL's only winless team this year. Why are they so bad? They have averaged 3.8 yards per play compared to a league average of 5.3. In five games, Houston has allowed thirty QB sacks. This means that in a typical twelve possessions for the Texans, 42% of these face a long passing situation against a nickel or dime defense. These problems combine to limit Houston to less than 11 points per game.

We opened the game at -15 and received large hits from sharps at +15 and +14. We dealt briefly at +13 but were then flooded with Indy money. It looks like the sharps are on Houston at +14 or higher, while the public is favoring Indianapolis.

jaguilar · 10-21-2005, 06:38 PM

Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 7
10/21/2005 11:15 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 7

NFL Week 6 Recap
All sportsbooks reporting healthy handle sizes for NFL Week 6. With the majority of last week’s games offering 3 for the line, the public jumped all over the already popular Teaser bet. As many bettors know, betting through 3 and 7 will dramatically improve winning potential.

“Every weekend it comes down to breaking up teasers and parlays”, said Steve Stone line manager at Oasis. “What’s tough about teasers is both sides win when the game lands on or close to the betting line”.

Such was the case in NFL Week 6 with 4 games landing on or close to the betting line which spells disaster for the sportsbooks. The only book reporting a positive weekend was Bowmans, who managed to hold a little more than 1% of our handle.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 70% of the action on one side the public posted another losing record 2-3. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis bounces back from it first non profitable weekend (2-2) and posted a 2-1 record for NFL Week 6. If readers waited until game time to bet the Carolina vs Detroit game as we suggested, you’d have gone 3-0 this weekend! This game illustrates why it is so important to lay a good number. But we had to use the line available to us on Thursday for the column. We always stick to what we put in print, so Carolina vs Detroit was a Loser. Overall, that makes SportsInsights.com 18-7 = 72%
View last week’s column.
*source: SportsInsights.com

NFL Week 7 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
With all those Teasers hitting last week handle sizes will increase this weekend. Look for the public to lay any number put out by the books. The public teams continue to be Indy and Seattle. Let’s see what NFL Week 7 has in store.

The theme of this week is how bad are Houston and Minnesota? One of the main topics of this column is line value and how to find it. This week is a good case study for finding value where the public has overreacted to negative press and the previous week’s performance.

Special Promotion - This week we offer readers of Sports Marketwatch a FREE 3 Point Line move on any Games to Watch. Click for Details

Indy vs Houston
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

Are there any two teams in the NFL heading in more opposite directions? The NFL’s only winless team goes up against the NFL’s only unbeaten team. The lowly Houston Texans just seem to get worse, while Indy methodically steamrolls one team after another.

The line opened 14.5 and quickly got bet to 15.5. Pinnacle and Bowmans reporting some Sharp buy back at 15, but the majority of public money chasing Indy. Simon Noble line manager of Pinnacle reports “We opened the game at 15 and received large hits from sharps at +15. We dealt briefly at +13 but were then flooded with Indy money. It looks like the sharps are on Houston at +14 or higher, while the public is favoring Indianapolis". A similar statement came from Scott of Bowmans, “we’ve seen a couple of Sharps pop us at 15.5 but even at this early stage the public money is overwhelming on Indy”.

I expect public money to continue pouring in on Indy driving the line to 16 or 16.5, before Sharp buy back knocks it down to 15.

Play on Houston +16 Bet Houston +19

Green Bay vs Minn
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

Early public money chasing Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers. This game is a classic case of the public overreacting to last weeks scores and negative press. There are a lot of negative stories surrounding the Vikings. “When it rains it pours…and it’s pouring in Minnesota” joked Steve Stone of Oasis. When teams get beat up in the press and suffers a bad lose the pervious week, I look for line value. Minnesota is coming of a horrible lose to Chicago and the media is following every move they make, getting 2-3pts at home is a great value play.

Play on Minnesota +2 Bet Minnesota +5

Kansas City vs Miami
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

The game has already seen it share of drama. It’s been moved up to Friday evening because of hurricane Wilma. If you’ve already bet Sunday’s game, your ticket has most likely been refunded. You need re-bet the game based on Friday’s scheduling number.

One of few games this week with interesting line movement. The line opened at KC -1.5 and saw a huge flood of KC money, BUT the line moved against the public and ended up at Miami -2. That’s a 3.5pt move! Scott from Bowmans reports “we opened a KC -1 and were instantly got hit by a couple Sharp players”.

I anticipate this game will move similar to last weeks Carolina vs Detroit game. Public action should push this game back to a Pick or KC -1. As always our money is with the Sharps, Miami Pick or +1. I’d wait to Sunday to bet this game.

Play on Miami -1 Bet Miami +2

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 7.
Games to Watch (18-7)
Houston +16
Minnesota +2
Miami -1

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy!
Daniel Fabrizio
Founder
SportsInsights.com

10-19-2005, 05:43 PM	#1 (permalink)
jaguilar Banned Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 29	pinnacle info Pinnacle Pulse The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble 10/19/2005 2:06PM EST Welcome to the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at PinnacleSports.com look to give you an insider’s view of the point spread movement on key games each week and provide you with a little gambling theory to help you find a smarter way to bet courtesy of Pinnacle Sports. Texas Tech (+15.5) at Texas Both teams are 6-0 overall and 3-0 in the Big 12. Both teams' offenses appear statistically insane with Tech averaging 53.7 points per game and 573 yards of offense, while Texas averages 46.7 points and 494.5 yards per game. However, there are a couple of big differences between the in-state rivals. First, Texas has the #1 pass defense in the Big 12, allowing under 148 passing yards per game. Second, Tech's schedule has been much easier thus far - games against Florida International, Sam Houston State, and Indiana State have inflated their statistics. By comparison, Sagarin rates Tech's schedule as the 138th most difficult in the nation compared to 46th for Texas. This week, we opened this game at Texas -12 and got pounded by Texas backers. Within four minutes we were at -14. We are still seeing mostly Longhorn money, but the line is stabilizing near 15.5/16. Interestingly, we started taking action on this game in July when we opened it as one of our Marquee match-ups. At that time, we opened it at +10.5 and Tech backers pushed the line down to 9.5. Auburn (+6.5) at LSU The last five meetings between these two teams have been won by the home team and only one of those was decided by less than 13 points. Both teams have one loss, but LSU has played stronger teams, overcoming Florida and Arizona State (while losing to Tennessee). We opened the game on Sunday at +6.5 and have been taking heavy, balanced action ever since. As another game that was featured as one of our College Football Marquee match-ups in July, we opened the line at -6 (-105) and took balanced action then as well. There has been little in way of line movement since then and it seems as though our opener was strong. Baltimore at Chicago O/U 30.5 There has only been one NFL game in the last 20 years that closed with a total under 31. In 1994, Chicago defeated Arizona 19-16 when the game had a total of 30.5. As of Wednesday morning, the under is priced at 30.5 -111. Why is this game so low? From a yards per play analysis, Baltimore and Chicago have the #1 and #2 defenses allowing approximately 4.3 yards per play each. Offensively, they rate #29 and #26 respectively with 4.1 and 4.7 yards per play. Both have rushed for more than 100 yards per game. Combine outstanding defenses with poor rush-based offenses and you get the lowest game total of all time. What is the lowest scoring NFL game in the last 20 years? In 2003, the Jets beat the Steelers 6-0 (with a total of 38.5). We opened this game at 32 flat and immediately saw sharp action on the under. We had some smaller players taking the over at plus money selling points. Several professional scalpers played over 30.5 (+106), but up until now the sharps are neutral at the current number. Indianapolis (-15) at Houston Most sharps shudder at the thought of laying more than 7 points in the NFL in any match-up and would rather play large dogs. I know many pros who won't lay more than 7 points no matter how good it looks. On the other side are the "public" bettors who are unafraid to lay any number. For that group, Indy has been a covering machine and they are now 8-4 against the spread in the last two years when favored by more than 7 points. Houston is the NFL's only winless team this year. Why are they so bad? They have averaged 3.8 yards per play compared to a league average of 5.3. In five games, Houston has allowed thirty QB sacks. This means that in a typical twelve possessions for the Texans, 42% of these face a long passing situation against a nickel or dime defense. These problems combine to limit Houston to less than 11 points per game. We opened the game at -15 and received large hits from sharps at +15 and +14. We dealt briefly at +13 but were then flooded with Indy money. It looks like the sharps are on Houston at +14 or higher, while the public is favoring Indianapolis.

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10-21-2005, 06:38 PM	#2 (permalink)
jaguilar Banned Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 29	Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition NFL Week 7 10/21/2005 11:15 PM EST by Daniel Fabrizio SportsInsights.com Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL. Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 7 NFL Week 6 Recap All sportsbooks reporting healthy handle sizes for NFL Week 6. With the majority of last week’s games offering 3 for the line, the public jumped all over the already popular Teaser bet. As many bettors know, betting through 3 and 7 will dramatically improve winning potential. “Every weekend it comes down to breaking up teasers and parlays”, said Steve Stone line manager at Oasis. “What’s tough about teasers is both sides win when the game lands on or close to the betting line”. Such was the case in NFL Week 6 with 4 games landing on or close to the betting line which spells disaster for the sportsbooks. The only book reporting a positive weekend was Bowmans, who managed to hold a little more than 1% of our handle. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 70% of the action on one side the public posted another losing record 2-3. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis bounces back from it first non profitable weekend (2-2) and posted a 2-1 record for NFL Week 6. If readers waited until game time to bet the Carolina vs Detroit game as we suggested, you’d have gone 3-0 this weekend! This game illustrates why it is so important to lay a good number. But we had to use the line available to us on Thursday for the column. We always stick to what we put in print, so Carolina vs Detroit was a Loser. Overall, that makes SportsInsights.com 18-7 = 72% View last week’s column. *source: SportsInsights.com NFL Week 7 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch With all those Teasers hitting last week handle sizes will increase this weekend. Look for the public to lay any number put out by the books. The public teams continue to be Indy and Seattle. Let’s see what NFL Week 7 has in store. The theme of this week is how bad are Houston and Minnesota? One of the main topics of this column is line value and how to find it. This week is a good case study for finding value where the public has overreacted to negative press and the previous week’s performance. Special Promotion - This week we offer readers of Sports Marketwatch a FREE 3 Point Line move on any Games to Watch. Click for Details Indy vs Houston View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp Are there any two teams in the NFL heading in more opposite directions? The NFL’s only winless team goes up against the NFL’s only unbeaten team. The lowly Houston Texans just seem to get worse, while Indy methodically steamrolls one team after another. The line opened 14.5 and quickly got bet to 15.5. Pinnacle and Bowmans reporting some Sharp buy back at 15, but the majority of public money chasing Indy. Simon Noble line manager of Pinnacle reports “We opened the game at 15 and received large hits from sharps at +15. We dealt briefly at +13 but were then flooded with Indy money. It looks like the sharps are on Houston at +14 or higher, while the public is favoring Indianapolis". A similar statement came from Scott of Bowmans, “we’ve seen a couple of Sharps pop us at 15.5 but even at this early stage the public money is overwhelming on Indy”. I expect public money to continue pouring in on Indy driving the line to 16 or 16.5, before Sharp buy back knocks it down to 15. Play on Houston +16 Bet Houston +19 Green Bay vs Minn View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp Early public money chasing Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers. This game is a classic case of the public overreacting to last weeks scores and negative press. There are a lot of negative stories surrounding the Vikings. “When it rains it pours…and it’s pouring in Minnesota” joked Steve Stone of Oasis. When teams get beat up in the press and suffers a bad lose the pervious week, I look for line value. Minnesota is coming of a horrible lose to Chicago and the media is following every move they make, getting 2-3pts at home is a great value play. Play on Minnesota +2 Bet Minnesota +5 Kansas City vs Miami View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp The game has already seen it share of drama. It’s been moved up to Friday evening because of hurricane Wilma. If you’ve already bet Sunday’s game, your ticket has most likely been refunded. You need re-bet the game based on Friday’s scheduling number. One of few games this week with interesting line movement. The line opened at KC -1.5 and saw a huge flood of KC money, BUT the line moved against the public and ended up at Miami -2. That’s a 3.5pt move! Scott from Bowmans reports “we opened a KC -1 and were instantly got hit by a couple Sharp players”. I anticipate this game will move similar to last weeks Carolina vs Detroit game. Public action should push this game back to a Pick or KC -1. As always our money is with the Sharps, Miami Pick or +1. I’d wait to Sunday to bet this game. Play on Miami -1 Bet Miami +2 So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 7. Games to Watch (18-7) Houston +16 Minnesota +2 Miami -1 It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks. Enjoy! Daniel Fabrizio Founder SportsInsights.com