BadCo

By Scouts, Inc.


Why To Watch
The Bills are tied for first place in the AFC East and travel to the West Coast to play the disappointing Raiders. Oakland may be without its biggest weapon -- WR Randy Moss, who was injured last week and could be a game-time decision. But always beware a desperate team. The Raiders are a better team than their record indicates, so look for the Bills to have their hands full against a team whose season is slipping away. The Raiders' defense must start fast, contain RB Willis McGahee and stop shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and critical mistakes.
LaMont Jordan's one 100-yard game came in the Raiders' only victory, so the Raiders need to be patient and pound the ball. It's no secret now that Kelly Holcomb is the Bills' starting quarterback, so look for the Bills to rely on a heavy dose of running the ball to set up the short controlled passing attack. The Bills need to start fast, control the clock and maintain good field position. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray must find a way for the Bills to stop the run and the focus this week will be on containing Jordan.


When the Bills have the ball
Rushing: Head coach Mike Mularkey and his offensive staff will continue to pound the ball with RB Willis McGahee against a Raiders run defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL against the run, giving up an average of 117.4 yards per game. After a 31-carry day a week ago against the Miami, McGahee continued to earn his pay with 29 carries against the Jets for a career-best 149 yards and a TD, all against the NFL's No. 8 defense. The Bills controlled the clock for a season-best 38:35 last week. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will again gear his defensive schemes toward stopping running back McGahee and the Buffalo rushing attack. FB Daimon Shelton continues to play under control and will be counted on heavily to create lanes in his matchup with MLB Danny Clark. Look for Ryan to continue to utilize his defensive personnel by using his 4-2-5 to put them in better situations and alignments to succeed.

The Bills offensive line played its best game last week with the return of RG Chris Villarrial and RT Mike Williams and will be geared toward controlling a defensive line lead by NT Ted Washington and RDT Warren Sapp. The Bills' offensive line must do an effective job of producing a consistent push at the line of scrimmage and allowing McGahee plenty of creases to work between the tackles against an average linebacker corps. Also, look for the Raiders to put a high emphasis this week on tackling and getting off the field on third-and-short yardages situations. Both SS Derrick Gibson and FS Stuart Schweigert will be depended on heavily to play under control and not allow any explosive running plays to get beyond the second level of the Raiders' defense.

Passing: QB Kelly Holcomb is 2-0 as the Bills starting quarterback and must continue to play at a high level against a Raiders secondary that is ranked 28th in the NFL, allowing 248.6 yards a game. Holcomb is not a real mobile quarterback like Losman, so the Raiders will blitz the formation based on sub personnel groupings and force Holcomb into making mistakes like he did last week against the Jets. WR Eric Moulds has come to life with Holcomb at quarterback. Moulds caught his second TD pass in as many games last week and continues to show ability and big-play flair. Look for the Raiders to contain Moulds by utilizing a safety over the top or a linebacker underneath in bracket coverage depending on how Rob Ryan sets up his match-up zones based on down and distance. It also could be an in-game adjustment since Moulds is averaging under 10-yards per catch. Moulds is a very physical receiver and a big red zone threat who can outmuscle most cornerbacks, but the Raiders possess two big corners in both Charles Woodson and Nnamdi Asomugha. Woodson has shown good versatility in sub as he has aligned at both corner and free safety depending on game plan.

Look for the Bills to spread the field on third down and attack certain mismatches that they can exploit. The Bills have an explosive receiver in Lee Evans and a quicker-than-fast-type receiver in Josh Reed and the Raiders will counter in sub with third corner Fabian Washington and the versatile Renaldo Hill. Also, look for Holcomb to utilize TE Mark Campbell and RB Shaud Williams in the short controlled passing attack, especially with all the attention given to the receiving corps.

When the Raiders have the ball
Rushing: The Raiders will pound the ball behind their big offensive line with Jordon. The Raiders have used a pass first, run second philosophy and have struggled to create good balance within the offensive system. With the injury to Moss, look for the Raiders to run this week to set up the play-action pass. The Raiders' offensive line averages 318 pounds and must do a better job of controlling the line of scrimmage vs. a defense line that averages 293 pounds. The Raiders are averaging 70.6 yards per game while the Bills are giving up an average of 158.5 yards per game. The Bills' run defense is still getting gashed for too many big plays due to poor gap control with their aggressive style. RDT Tim Anderson has replaced the injured Ron Edwards and WLB Angelo Crowell has replaced the heart and soul of the defense in Takeo Spikes, which has resulted in certain weaknesses that offenses have exposed and attacked. The Bills lack good interior depth on the defensive line which has resulted in giving up some big plays in critical situations.

Zack Crockett, the teams' short-yardage specialist and starting FB, will need to do an effective job of leading up inside as a lead blocker in the Raiders two-back offense. With the possibility of Moss not playing, the Bills will turn their attention toward running back Jordon and QB Kerry Collins. Look for Bills to use multiple fronts that will allow SLB Jeff Posey to walk-up and align on the outside shade of the tight end and SS Lawyer Milloy to invert and move down as an extra defender in the box. MLB London Fletcher must be a rock in the middle and do a good job of avoiding blocks and making plays within the box. The Raiders must stay patient and continue to attack the Bills multiple fronts, which will allow them to get back on track in the AFC West.

Passing: QB Kerry Collins' streak of 150 consecutive passes without an interception came to an end last week. The injury to Moss will plague the Raiders with a lot of offensive problems against the Bills No. 1-ranked pass defense that is allowing only 136.8 yards a game. Collins has a passer rating of 85.9 and will need to utilize his offensive weapons by getting into rhythm behind a strong running game that will set up the pass. With the injury to Moss, look for defensive coordinator Jerry Gray to blitz and pressure Collins to keep him scrambling and force him into making poor decisions by throwing into double coverage. The Bills' secondary, led by RC Nate Clements and FS Troy Vincent, can match up against the Raiders spread offense in passing situations. Look for Clements to match up with WR Jerry Porter and LC Terrence McGee to match up with WR Doug Gabriel.

Look for Gabriel to have an impact in this game after finishing with five catches for 84 yards last week -- the Raiders will look to exploit this matchup with McGee. The Raiders have a big offensive line and will have to spend a lot of time this week to shore up protections with an emphasis on protecting the edges due to the edge pressure of RDE Aaron Schobel, LDE Chris Kelsay and SLB Jeff Posey. The Raiders are still struggling on third-down efficiency and red zone production, whereas the Bills have struggled to slow offensives down in the red area and have been erratic in different situations through the start of the season. Look for the Bills to continue to play a lot of eight-man fronts with SS Lawyer Milloy cheated up as the fourth linebacker-type in order to focus on stopping Jordan and the Raiders' rushing attack.





Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Bills and Raiders. Now they're back with a second look.

• Look for head coach Mike Mularkey to open up the offense this week against a Raiders' defense that is ranked 28th in the NFL, and giving up an average of 366 yards per game. The Bills will still stick to their winning formula of running the ball, but look for them to take more chances down the field -- the Raiders secondary is giving up 248.6 yards per game.
The Bills have relied heavily on RB Willis McGahee and were able to control the ball for 38:35 last week against the Jets. After a 31-carry day a week ago against Miami, McGahee continued to earn his pay with 29 carries for a career-best 149 yards and a TD, all against the NFL's No. 8 defense. However, Mularkey must continue to harp on penalties that have affected the Bills, especially facing a tough road ahead on their schedule starting with the Raiders this week.

• Look for the Raiders to continue to struggle with their passing game against the Bills -- their secondary ranks first in the NFL in pass defense. Disregard the 292 yards passing that QB Kerry Collins had last week because it was by far Oakland's worst air show of the year. Collins only threw one interception, but the Chargers dropped three. The offensive line gave up four sacks. Doug Gabriel produced five catches after Randy Moss left with an injury, but Moss was missed big time.

Raiders' receivers dropped four passes and had no passing touchdowns. With the injury to Moss, look for wide receiver Jerry Porter to be the primary receiver. TE Courtney Anderson could play a bigger role Sunday, and QB Kerry Collins also might find himself looking more to Alvis Whitted or Doug Grabriel. And second-year receiver Johnnie Morant could become a factor for Oakland after being inactive the first six weeks of the season, and so could Carlos Francis -- both players have gotten a lot of work this week in their preparation against Buffalo.

• Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray harps on winning the turnover battle, and that's what the Bills have done the last two weeks. The Bills have forced eight turnovers in wins over the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. The windfall has the Bills ranked fourth in the NFL with 15 takeaways (nine interceptions, six fumble recoveries).

That is slightly ahead of last season's pace when they finished with a league-high 39 takeaways. Buffalo also has a plus-8 turnover ratio. Only the Cincinnati Bengals (plus-16) and New York Giants (plus-10) are better in the giveaway/takeaway category. The Raiders offense has only four turnovers and is 17th in the NFL in this category.

• Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will focus on stopping RB Willis McGahee with his multiple seven- and eight-man fronts and forcing QB Kelly Holcomb to attack through the air. The Raiders will also incorporate a lot of 4-2-5 packages against certain multiple personnel groupings, by using either a safety or corner near the box.

Also, look for Ryan to utilize pass-rush specialist Derrick Burgess in certain alignments along the line of scrimmage, in order to create mismatches along the Bills' offensive line. Burgess has five sacks and is difficult to block based on his speed and quickness off the edge. He plays with a high motor and can shorten the edge and close on the quarterback, and Holcomb is not real mobile in the pocket.

• The Bills will try to exploit the Raiders' offensive rushing attack, which is ranked 31st in the NFL, averaging 70.6 yards per game. The goal for the Bills is to put the Raiders in third and long situations and attack QB Kerry Collins with their aggressive defense, forcing him into making quick decisions by throwing into double coverage. The Raiders will counter this by attacking the Bills' run defense with RB LaMont Jordan. The Bills run defense is ranked 30th in the league and is allowing 158.5 yards per game.

• QB Kelly Holcomb, who won his second straight start by throwing for 172 yards and two TDs against the Jets last Sunday, is the fourth Bills' quarterback to start his Buffalo career with a winning streak. QB J.P. Losman, who lost his starting job to Holcomb two weeks ago, will remain the backup until further notice.

Coach Mike Mularkey said Holcomb would start Sunday's game in Oakland and a switch back to Losman is unlikely anytime soon with the offense in a much-improved groove. Losman was 45-of-94 in passing, for only 433 yards, a 47.9 completion percentage, one TD, two interceptions, 10 sacks and a 55.9 quarterback rating in his four starts.

• LB Kirk Morrison, a rookie third-round draft choice, has led the Raiders in tackles all season and has been one of the few bright spots on a team that has had trouble in recent years drafting defensive talent. Morrison has shown good leadership, instincts and toughness and can bring heat off the edge in certain sub situations.

• Rookie wide receiver and second-round pick Roscoe Parrish may finally make his regular-season debut on Sunday. Mularkey thought about activating Parrish for the Jets game, but decided it was best to wait another week. Parrish is undersized, but tough and not afraid to go over the middle and make a tough catch in traffic. He has explosive speed and could be used in the Bills' rotation in multiple sets. Parrish has been out since breaking his wrist in training camp.

Special Teams
KR Terrence McGee made the Jets pay last week with returns of 41 and 42 yards to set-up a TD and a field goal. Rian Lindell hit two big field goals, including a 50-yarder. Lindell is 13-of-14 this year and 54-of-66 for his three-year Buffalo career. His 81.8 accuracy percentage is a team record for kickers with at least 50 attempts. P Brian Moorman is third in the AFC, with a 46.3 average and a net average of 38.0. The Bills must continue to limit penalties, which has hindered good field position.

P Shane Lechler dropped three punts inside the 20 and averaged 47 yards. He is fourth in the AFC, with an average of 46.1. The Raiders were never close enough to try a field goal last week and coverage on the opening kickoff, which came back 60 yards, broke down. The Raiders will really need to focus on stopping McGee and shoring up their coverage units. Look for special teams coach Joe Avezzano to instruct K Sebastian Janikowski to kick directionally away from McGee. Backup FS Jerrod Cooper is a core special teams player and will have a key role in stopping McGee.

Matchups
1. Oakland WR Jerry Porter against Buffalo RCB Nate Clements
2. Buffalo RB Willis McGahee against Oakland MLB Danny Clark
3. Oakland RCB Charles Woodson against Buffalo WR Eric Moulds
4. Buffalo OC Trey Teague against Oakland NT Ted Washington
5. Oakland DE Derrick Burgess against Buffalo LT Mike Gandy

Scouts' Edge
The Kelly Holcomb-led Bills will look to continue their rebirth against the disappointing Raiders. Without the services of Randy Moss, look for the Raiders and Kerry Collins to balance the offense and attack the Bills with LaMont Jordan, which will open up the downfield passing attack. Collins must limit his mistakes and make better decision against a good Buffalo secondary.

The Bills will stay conservative on offens,e with Holcomb handing the ball off to Willis McGahee, who has averaged 26 carries per game over the last four games. There will be a high emphasis in the kicking game this week and the play on special teams will be critical in field position. This has the makings of being a high-scoring affair if both teams can establish the run to set up the pass. The Bills have struggled to win on the road, and look for that trend to continue as the Raiders will win a tough game at McAfee Coliseum.



BILLS OFFENSE VS. RAIDERS DEFENSE

Holcomb (368 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has not reminded many Bills fans of Jim Kelly in his first two starts in a Buffalo uniform, but has presided over a level of offensive efficiency the team had not experienced with Losman at the helm. Holcomb was 18-of-26 passing for 172 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions against the Jets last week, making his passer rating for 2005 a steady 88.7. Holcomb's strength has been getting the wide receivers involved, as both Eric Moulds (24 receptions, 2 TD) and Lee Evans (14 receptions) have emerged from their anonymous status in the presence of the new signal-caller. Moulds had seven catches for 63 yards and a score against the Jets, and Evans added three catches for 22 yards. Holcomb's first TD pass of the day went to second-year pro Jonathan Smith (4 receptions on the year), the first touchdown of Smith's career. At tight end, Mark Campbell (8 receptions) added two receptions for 34 yards in a winning effort. Holcomb was sacked just once last week, but the Buffalo line has allowed a total of 15 sacks through six games. Despite Holcomb's strong play, the Bills rank 31st in the league in passing offense (111.3 yards per game).

The Oakland secondary has been a major Achilles heel, as the Raiders rank a distant 28th in the league in passing defense (248.6 yards per game) in 2005. Cornerbacks Charles Woodson (27 tackles, 1 INT) and Nnamdi Asomugha (21 tackles) will be asked to handle Moulds and Evans, and free safety Derrick Gibson (33 tackles, 1 sack) and strong safety Stuart Schweigert (16 tackles) will help guard against the big play. Gibson had seven tackles against the Chargers in a game where the Bolts took to the air just 21 times, completing 15. The Raiders sacked San Diego's Drew Brees twice last Sunday, both of those registered by end Derrick Burgess (17 tackles, 5 sacks). Burgess has five of the Raiders' eight sacks thus far in 2005.

Though the story in Buffalo of late has been Holcomb, the offense continues to revolve around running back Willis McGahee (604 rushing yards, 4 TD, 11 receptions). McGahee rushed 29 times for 143 yards and a touchdown last week, boosting his per-carry average on the year to a healthy 4.4. The Bills have also found touches for backup Shaud Williams (80 rushing yards, 7 receptions) who ran six times for 34 yards last Sunday. Fullback Daimon Shelton (4 receptions) has been a solid blocker for McGahee all season. The Bills are sixth in the league in rushing offense (131.3 yards per game) as they head into Oakland.

The Raiders did little to contain San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson last week, allowing the running back to rush 31 times for 140 yards, catch two passes for 39 yards and a touchdown, and throw a touchdown pass on a trick play in the second quarter. Oakland will have things only slightly easier this time around, when inside linebackers Kirk Morrison (44 tackles) and Danny Clark (38 tackles) will be asked to concentrate on slowing McGahee. Morrison and Clark had eight tackles each against San Diego. Up front, tackle Ted Washington (13 tackles) registered six stops, and fellow interior lineman Ed Jasper (11 tackles) logged two tackles. Bobby Hamilton (14 tackles) plays end for the Raiders in most running situations, while Warren Sapp (13 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) appears to defend the pass. The Silver and Black are 22nd in the league in rushing defense (117.4 yards per game).

RAIDERS OFFENSE VS. BILLS DEFENSE

Raider quarterback Kerry Collins (1383 passing yards, 6 TD, 1 INT) has been at the fore of an offensive attack that ranks fifth in the league in passing (264 yards per game), but the probable absence of Moss (19 receptions, 2 TD) casts some doubt on the team's ability to stretch the field and throw the football. With Moss sidelined for most of the Week 6 loss to the Chargers, Collins went 24-of-48 for 292 yards, not throwing a touchdown pass and firing his first interception of the season. Wideouts Doug Gabriel (7 receptions, 1 TD), Jerry Porter (21 receptions), and Alvis Whitted (8 receptions) were all heavily involved in the attack. Gabriel had five catches for a game-high 84 yards, Porter added 63 yards on five grabs, and Whitted was credited with four receptions for 34 yards. That group, along with tight end Courtney Anderson (12 receptions, 2 TD) should rank among Collins' primary targets against the Bills. The Oakland line has surrendered 12 sacks on the year, including four a week ago.

Collins will be working against a Buffalo defense that currently ranks first in the league against the pass (136.8 yards per game). The secondary group of cornerbacks Nate Clements (34 tackles, 1 INT) and Terrence McGee (32 tackles, 2 INT), free safety Troy Vincent (32 tackles, 3 INT) and strong safety Lawyer Milloy (38 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) has developed into one of the NFL's best, and last week held the Jets' Vinny Testaverde to 161 yards on 12-of-25 passing. McGee and linebacker Angelo Crowell both had interceptions in the contest, and Clements posted a team-high seven tackles in the win. The Buffalo pass rush has accounted for 14 sacks on the year, and dropped Testaverde five times last Sunday. End Ryan Denney (17 tackles, 3 sacks) had two of the sacks in the game, and tackles Tim Anderson (13 tackles, 1 sack) and Sam Adams (11 tackles, 1 sack) posted one each. Ends Aaron Schobel (21 tackles, 2 sacks) and Chris Kelsay (14 tackles, 2 sacks) are tied for second on the team sacks chart behind Denney.

Looking to gut the Bills' run-stopping unit will be running back LaMont Jordan (310 rushing yards, 26 receptions, 5 TD), who has just one 100-yard game to his credit this season but has been a vital part of the Oakland offense in the passing game. Jordan was limited to 36 ground yards on 12 carries last Sunday, but scored both of the Raiders' touchdowns on the ground and had a team-high six catches for another 58 yards. Jordan is averaging just 3.6 yards per rush, but leads Oakland in receptions heading into the Buffalo contest. Fullback Zack Crockett (36 rushing yards, 3 TD) has provided an occasional change-of- pace for Jordan, and had one carry for three yards against the Chargers. Oakland is 31st in the league in rushing offense (70.6 yards per game), ahead of only Philadelphia in that category.

Buffalo has struggled against the run in the absence of Pro Bowl linebacker Takeo Spikes (Achilles), who is out for the season. The Bills rank 30th in the league in rushing defense (158.5 yards per game) as Week 7 begins, and last week allowed the Jets' Curtis Martin to break out of a funk for an 18-carry, 148-yard, one touchdown performance. Linebackers Crowell (30 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), London Fletcher (45 tackles, 1 sack), and Jeff Posey (20 tackles) will bear much of the responsibility for slowing Jordan this week, with Adams (11 tackles) and Anderson (13 tackles) expected to stop the inside run at the point of attack. Fletcher was credited with three tackles and a fumble recovery against New York last Sunday. Schobel leads all Buffalo linemen in tackles with 21.


GAME PLAN
When the Bills lost at Oakland a year ago, they rushed 24 times for a mere 67 yards. Without the support of a running game, QB Drew Bledsoe was sacked seven times. That can't happen to Kelly Holcomb if the Bills are to win this tough road assignment. Unlike a year ago when Buffalo ventured to the rowdy coliseum, Willis McGahee is now the Bills' starting ball carrier, not Travis Henry, and he's into a serious groove with 60 carries for 229 yards his last two games. Oakland has a big-name front wall (Ted Washington, Warren Sapp, Bobby Hamilton) but it's crumbling from age. If persistent, Buffalo should be able to hammer away and control the football against the NFL's 28th-ranked defense, a perfect recipe for winning on the road. Meanwhile on defense, the Bills can't let this be the week the Raiders get on track on the ground. Free agent RB Lamont Jordan, who did some damage against Buffalo while with the Jets, has gotten only 87 carries so far (310 yards, 4 TDs) and is begging for more work against Buffalo's porous No. 30 run defense. Bills catch a break if WR Randy Moss (groin/ribs) can't go, but Jerry Porter has to be respected and QB Kerry Collins loves throwing to Jordan (team-high 26 catches). The Raiders have played a difficult schedule with their losses by margins of just 10, 6, 3 and 13 points. This is a must-win game and the Bills need to match the desperate Raiders' intensity from the opening bell.

GAME PLAN
The Raiders will look to attack Buffalo much the way they did Dallas - get Jordan 25 or more carries, control the line of scrimmage and hope to get a few big plays from Collins in play-action.

On defense, Oakland will look cut slow Willis McGahee and rush Kelly Holcomb. The Raiders had seven sacks against the Bills in Week 2 last season and didn't have a pass rusher the quality of Derrick Burgess.

On special teams, Sebastian Janikowski will look to put Bills kickoff return specialist Terrance McGee in corner and get continued good work from punter Shane Lechler.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

Raiders kickoff coverage team vs. Bills kickoff return team. The Raiders are ranked 31st in the NFL, with opponents starting on average at the 30-yard line. Buffalo's average drive start is 33.2, the best in the NFL. Bills' return specialist Terrence McGee leads the NFL with a 34.6 average. Raiders' kicker Sebastian Janikowski has just two touchbacks, both in to the north end of the Coliseum where the wind is favorable.

Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha vs. Bills receivers Eric Moulds and Lee Evans. Asomugha has played it safe but fairly well this season. His penchant for playing deep and giving up the short pass could hurt against a Bills offense that has seen Kelly Holcomb throw almost exclusively short passes. Moulds has just 202 yards on 24 receptions with a long of 19. Lee Evans, with 14 receptions for 201 yards (14.4) is the deep threat