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Sports Handicapping Angles/Systems
by ProfessorWins

Sports handicapping systems/angles can be loosely grouped into 3 distinct categories: (1) Letdown angles which are Play Against, (2) Momentum angles which are Play On, and (3) Look-ahead angles which can be either positive or negative. They can be based on statistics from previous games, location-based such as home-off-away or home-off-home, or be outcome-based with a team coming off a win or loss. More often, they are a combination of the above. Below are just a couple of the many angles I have in action for Week 3 in the NFL. I will break down two angles from the different categories above. Each angle will be broken down to explain the rationale behind the angle, and a qualifying game will be identified. Without further adieu, let me get started.

1. LETDOWN ANGLE: Away dogs that won their last game by 14 or more pts as home dogs of +3 or more are just 6-25-2 ATS since 1989.

Rationale: Teams that are coming off an upset win at home are feeling pretty good about themselves in general, but a 2 touchdown blowout win over a team that was believed to be better then them (the fact that they were +3 at home ensures this) makes them feel extra special about themselves. Now a week later, they are going on the road, again as dogs, and they are not likely to catch this week’s opponent by surprise given last week’s upset win. The result, as the 5-28 SU and 6-25-2 ATS record shows, is overwhelmingly an SU/ATS loss. Playing against these teams nets you a nice 80.6% angle that has survived the test of time going back 16 years!

This Week: The angle plays AGAINST Tennessee as they are off a blowout 15 pt home win over Baltimore as dogs of +3 ½ pts. It will be difficult for them to get up again here for a non-conference game, especially with their first divisional foe on-deck next week (Indianapolis).

2. LOOK-AHEAD ANGLE: Dogs the week prior to their bye are 116-93-6 ATS since 1997, and dogs of +6 or more prior to their bye are 39-11-1 ATS during that span.

Rationale: Teams use their bye week to get rested, both from a mental and physical perspective. As such, the week prior to a bye, teams know (and hear over and over from the coaches) that they can give everything they have that week and then they’ll get a “break.” They know they’ll be rewarded when the game is over. Now, give these motivated teams some points, in this case +6, and they’re pretty hard to beat as indicated by the 39-11-1 ATS. That’s a nice little 78% angle that spans 50 plays over an 8 year period.

This Week: The angle plays ON Cleveland this week as they are on bye next week, and currently +13 ½ to Indianapolis. Crennel should have no problem motivating his guys to face the mighty Colts, and if anyone knows how to stop Peyton Manning it would be Crennel whose defenses in New England frustrated Manning each time they played. It will be difficult for Indianapolis to cover such a big number against a highly motivated team.

Best of Luck to all...

Rick
ProfessorWins