TonyDiamond

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Minnesota –9.0 over Miami Ohio

Minnesota is most definitely in a “bounce back” situation this week having suffered a heartbreaking overtime upset loss to Bowling Green last week 32-31. Emotions will run high as they certainly don’t want the reputation of having lost in back to back weeks against MAC conference teams. Confident they were going to give their new head coach Tim Brewster his first win last week, they have vowed to give it to him this week. It took a late 4th quarter TD with 17 seconds left for Miami to beat Ball State 14-13. Miami’s only win over a Big Ten team was against Northwestern and that was the only win against the Big Ten since 1977.

Minnesota's pass defense was horrible at the end of last year, and certainly should improve at least a little this year. However, Miami cannot pass the ball and the Gophers will be able to key on the running game. Miami QB Mike Kokal is a mediocre quarterback, but he doesn't have a great receiving corps to work with and the offensive line, which was an Achilles heel last year, didn't show immediate improvement in week one. The secondary of Ball State has to be ranked as sub-par and yet the Red Hawks were unable to generate over 150 yards in the air.

This year, the Miami offensive line was supposed to be much improved, but last week it allowed three sacks and was unable to contain the defense to open up a running game. Minnesota might not have the best defense in the country, but it's sure a lot better than Ball State. Gopher offensive line should be able to open things up for Amir Pinnix and the running game to take over and thus control the game. To counter the ball control game, Miami will have to open up the airways with some big pass plays, and they just don’t have the passing game to get that done. If they could only put up 14 against Ball State, they will certainly have problems putting points on the board against a Big 10 team.

Miami is 2-9 versus non-conference opponents and 2-6 ATS against the Big Ten. Minnesota is 11-2 ATS following the 1st loss of the season, they are 13-3 versus non conference opponents in the last 16 situations. Minnesota plays well in the role of a favorite as they were 5-1 last year, especially against sub .500 teams (except for last week). In the 6 games they were favored last year, they racked up 255 points an average of 42.5 points per game, while giving up a total of only 95 for an average of 15.83 points per game. Against weaker teams last year, they beat Kent St 44-0, Temple 62-0, and Indiana 63-26. They have Florida Atlantic next week so they have no look ahead, and after the upset loss last week, they should be very focused and looking to pour on the coals. Look for the Gophers to be totally focused this week and could win this one by 3 TD’s.

Diamond Line: Minnesota –18.87

I am also looking very closely at Oklahoma –11.0 (not official play yet)