Sebastian:
50 Washington
50 Tampa Bay
Sebastian:
50 Washington
50 Tampa Bay
Picks go 3-0 and pick up 3.06 units-the afternoon pick was not posted as my source was not available-we will take Sebastian's word that it was a winner.
Overall record is now a DOCUMENTED 830-899-18 or 48% and 69 games under 500.
He needs around 147 CONSECUTIVE winners just to get to the theoretical break even 52.38% winners.
Overall deficit is now MINUS $15,803 at $100 a unit and MINUS $31,606 at $200 a unit, both of which were recommended for ALL plays when his "I implore you to buy my picks" speech was given on 5/25/12-THESE ARE NOT MADE UP FIGURES FOLKS!
There have been 133 winning days, 213 losing days and 3 break even plays for a still poor 38.4% winning days percentage, which while improving of late, is still way below what he needs to have in order to get people to sign up for his picks.
Sebastian Report for Saturday-all 50 units:
Red Sox
White Sox
Baltimore
I haven't heard from my Seabass horse, eh I mean source yet so no guarantees I will have the pick.
I had a dream the other night where my wife and I went to the window to bet, and I saw first the number 52 and then a 3 and a 1 later.
No guarantees of course but I am going to play the 52 exacta and have some fun with the other two numbers in exotics.
I haven't heard from my Seabass horse yet, eh I mean source, so no guarantees I will have the pick.
I had a dream the other night where my wife and I went to the window to bet, and I saw first the number 52 and then a 3 and a 1 later.
No guarantees of course but I am going to play the 52 exacta and have some fun with the other two numbers in exotics.
Anyone whose prime mission in life is to accumulate money by gambling or by other means should consider this:
Whoever loves money never has money enough; whoever loves wealth is never satisfied with his income. This too is meaningless. (Ecclesiastes 5:10, NIV)
"No servant can serve two masters. [Jesus said.] Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money." (Luke 16:13, NIV)
For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs. (1 Timothy 6:10, NIV)
Word on the street is that Seabass had the winning horse in today's Preakness. Get ready to hear about it for the next decade.
By the way Savage, I saw for the first time, Seabass's daily video. if I were you, I would give him your full name and address, and offer to have a limo pick him up and deliver him to you. Maybe today was a bad video day for Seabass, but damn, this guy making threats? If I were him, I would have passed on the video advertising...at least he could be the typical internet tough guy. Now we know that he is a tired looking, weather worn old man.
Thanks for that ebro.Originally Posted by ebro1278
Yeah-I remember when he was on the radio, he used to brag about how everyone gussed him 20 years or even more younger than he actually was.
I don't have any experience as an age guesser at your local fair, you know the one that if the guy doing the guessing doens't get within two years of your actual age, you win a teddy bear-seriously though, does he really think he looks 20 years younger than his actual age of 65?
In all honesty I could see someone perhaps guessing him for maybe early 60's but even with his colored hair and eyebrows, I don't think anyone would guess him much younger than that assuming that the person doing the guessing was not blind.
Recap:
Picks go 1-2 and lose 1.04 units.
Overall record is now a DOCUMENTED 831-901-18 or 48% and 70 games under 500.
He needs around 148 CONSECUTIVE winners just to get to the theoretical break even 52.38% winners.
Overall deficit is now MINUS $15,907 at $100 a unit and MINUS $31,814 at $200 a unit, both of which were recommended for ALL plays when his "I implore you to buy my picks" speech was given on 5/25/12-THESE ARE NOT MADE UP FIGURES FOLKS!
There have been 133 winning days, 214 losing days and 3 break even plays for a still poor 38.3% winning days percentage, which while improving of late, is still way below what he needs to have in order to get people to sign up for his picks.
The new rules for grading his picks which will go into effect on 5/25, the first anniversary since we started tracking, will be announced on Monday.
From his summary on his website he had a very good day at the track and should be commended.
That said and at least in the Preakness when he claims he had the #2, 3,4 and 5 horses, lets not forget that that there were only nine horse to begin with and that he did not mention that he also had the #3 horse, Titletown Five to win under wet conditions and I assume to at least be a choice to make the money under dry conditions(which were in effect)-that horse finished last.
Thus rightfully he can say that he picked five out of the six horses out of the total of nine to get there.
Also with the instructions he gave out, the only way he can claim that he had the five horses in the trifecta and superpefectar in exact orde would have been to box them.
Thus, to claim he had the $2 trifecta, $1000(approx.), one would have to spend $240(six horses) and $720 to win the superfecta which paid around $1800.
Yes that strategy would have still been profitable yesterday.
The bigger questions are 1) how many people would have wanted to tie up that much money in a horserace considering that most of the folks out there who might be interested in buying any kind of picks are casual players anyways(I don't here daily ads to sell his horse picks and in fact, he actually included them in his weekly or weekend package of sports picks) and 2) documentation as to how investing a lot of money with this strategy in races works over time.
Thus, imo we have to take with a bit of salt his implication that if you did not play hias horses yesterday, you cost yourself a lot of money.
That in essence is no different than saying that after he had a rare 5-0 day with his sports picks over the last year, one cost himself a lot of money by not having and betting them.
In that instance, while what he would claim would be true, it would not be true if the person had played his picks on many other days and for that matter the entire year as has been carefully documented here.
In short, if one played his horses yesterday, savor the moment-you made good money whether you boxed his picks or not.
If you did not buy the picks, yes you lost out on the day, but there is no guarantee you would have made money if you had played his horses over any specified period of time as there is no documentation of this other than a few long shot winners along the way with Giacomo being the biggest.
OMG what a day at the track!! My longshot Preakness pick goes wire- to wire(OXBOW) and wins at 15-1! Also released second , third, fourth, and fifth place winners in the race.... Also Pianist ($15.40) Summer Applause ($5.20)..Gotta Love the Drake (32.20 to place) and third choice Skyring($50) !! (Gary Stevens daily double over $500).....How much did it cost you NOT having my plays yesterday!!! Sunday baseball and NYR BOS Game 2 winner posted on my "MONEY PICKS" page NOW!!
I guess all the mlm bullshit scams he tries to sell and promote did not help his old ass?
EVERYPLAY posted here and everywhere else is UNCONFIRMED unless you buy it and post it yourself!
Seabass Report for Sunday:
50 Atlanta on the run line
50 San Diego
50 OVER Colorado
50 UNDER San Antonio
100 NY Rangers
He has a lean toward San Antonio for the series but not an official play.
New Rules for Rating Sebastian's Games:
I said originally that I was going to out this out tomorrow, but inasmuch as there is a rain delay in the Sox game and I have some free time, I decided to at least give the backdrop for now for those who are new here and for those who don't remember.
Last 5/25 when Sebastian wasn't doing very well overall, he came on the comp. line and "implored" people to buy his baseball picks as he was about to get some great information from his sources.
He also clearly said that everyone should bet all the picks for the same amount, $100 for a $100 bettor and $200 for a $200 bettor.
He claimed that by so doing the person would "make a small fortune."
Well at this point I decided to take him up on this and see how he did over time rating all games for one unit.
All of this was stated in original Sebass Scam Thread, but unfortunately this post along with many other were lost when the server was changed in October.
Anyways, as you can see in post 1328 and in any other post, he has not lived up to his promise, and anyone following him in spite of winning streaks along the way is buried.
Sebastian also did not live up to his original statement as time went on and raised the ratings, especially as baseball wound down and we got into football and basketball and we saw ratings as high as 1000 units.
Yes some of those ratings came from his "Private Plays" and not him but for that matter so did the plays which imspired the "I implore you to buy my picks" statements an dto play them all equally.
In essence above is not justification to up the ratings from all equal to anything he chose to.
He used the new ratings in his calculations and recaps but we did not as in our opinion he had no right to change the ratings simply because he changed his mind and was not doing well.
Thus what you have see in our recaps for all his plays is what he stated originally-all plays for 1 unit or $100 and $200 if you are a $200 player.
Anyways, inasmuch as we have already clearly demonstrated he hasn't come close to making people money and has in fact lost them quite a bit over the last year, we decided that during the second year we would give him a bit more flexibility with his ratings in order to give him a chance to show us that he can win over time.
Tomorrow I will state what the changes will be.
Picks go 2-3 and lose 1.1 units.
Overall record is now a DOCUMENTED 833-904-18 or 48% and 71 games under 500.
He needs around 149 CONSECUTIVE winners just to get to the theoretical break even 52.38% winners.
Overall deficit is now MINUS $16,017 at $100 a unit and MINUS $32.034 at $200 a unit, both of which were recommended for ALL plays when his "I implore you to buy my picks" speech was given on 5/25/12-THESE ARE NOT MADE UP FIGURES FOLKS!
There have been 133 winning days, 215 losing days and 3 break even plays for a still poor 38.2% winning days percentage, which while improving of late, is still way below what he needs to have in order to get people to sign up for his picks.
New Rules for Grading Sebastian's Plays:
First of all if you haven't done so already, I suggest you go back and read post 1332.
Here are the rules which I intend to implement beginning on 5/25, which will mark the beginning of the second season in grading his plays.
As I mentioned recently, it will follow the guidelines of how Northcoast rates its plays in football and those of the NC Community Cappers for basketball, baseball and hockey.
The overwhelming number of plays for NC and its cappers are rated 3*s and 4*s.
There are also 1*s, 2*s and 5*s.
From what I have seen posted of 2*s, they are quite rare, and while I have never seen a 1*, imo it would amount to a comp. play.
Now when it comes to 5*'s, there are very specific rules regarding them.
Whether it be NC or any one of its cappers, each is allowed ONE and ONLY ONE 5* per month in any sport.
Now getting back to Sebastian and changing the all equal ratings which have been in effect since last 5/25 when HE and not I suggested that everyone play all of his plays for one unit(until he chose to change it back to any ratings go), here is what I propose, which is actually a bit more liberal than that of NC if one considers that a 3* is the average play:
A 100 unit play which is Sebastian's standard play will continue to be graded at one unit.
A 50 unit play which is the lowest I have seen rated since I started tracking will now be graded as 1/2 unit instead of for one unit.
A 200 unit play(usually a Steam Play) which is pretty common will now be graded as a 1 1/2 unit play rather the for one as it is now.
Notice here that at NC a 4* play which is pretty common is actually 1.33 units higher than its typical 3* play.
A 300 unit will now count as a 2 unit play rather than for one.
With everything up to and including 200 unit plays, there will be no limit to how many he can put out.
With the 300 unit play there will be a limit of one per week in any sport.
Ok here is the real meat of the matter which applies to 400 units and higher rated plays:
Up until now they have been graded as one unit plays no matter how high he has rated them(1000 units is the maximum he has used so far with 700, 500 and 400 used also-I have never seen a 900, 800 or 600 unit play although in theory they are there).
Starting on 5/25, any play rated as 400 units or higher will be graded as a 2.5 unit play no matter if he rates it as 400 units or 1000 units.
He will be allowed ONE AND ONLY ONE OF THESE PLAYS IN A GIVEN SPORT PER MONTH-this is in line whith what NC does.
If he exceeds this number and puts out another 400 unit or higher play in a month, we will grade it for the next highest category for which he is eligible which would be for either 2 units if he hasn't already used his 300 unit play for that week or for 1.5 units(200*) if he has.
Also, if he puts out two 400 unit or higher rated plays at one time and hasn't use up his allotment, the higher rated one will be designated as the 2 1/2 star and the other for the next eligible category-if both are rated the same(eg 2 400 unit plays), they will both be rated as 300 unit plays or 2*s provided he hasn't used them up or back to 200 unit plays if he has with the 400 unit play still available for a future pick.
If for example in the above instance, he threw out two 400 unit plays and hadn't yet used his 300 unit play for the week, one of the plays would be designated for using up the play for that week while the other play would "borrow" the 300 unit play for the next week and that there would no remaining 300 unit play for that week.
Also to be clear, there will be no "rollover" plays allowed meaning that if he does not use his 300 or 400 or more unit play for a given week or month, he cannot carry it over to the next week or month.
Also for purposes of grading, it does not matter if any of the plays are from him or, from his Private Plays or from some other source-the allotments remain the same.
Imo although above is a bit confusing and there are probably instances I haven't thought of, at the very least, it doe allow him some flexibility and a chance for him to rate his plays.
No we will not allow him 400, 500, 700 and 1000 unit plays in their purest form which would give ratings of 4, 5, 7 and 10 times the ratings of standard plays because its goes against all good handicapping principles, but I think what I propose at least gives him the flexibility of Northcoast which imo has a very fair rating.
Actually we are being more liberal than NC because if one considers rthat a 3 unit play is the standard play for them, them a 5 unit play is really being rated at 1.67 units (5 divided by 3) whereas we are giving the once a month allotted play a 2.5 rating.
Anyways, thats it and of course, if I left anything out, you have any suggestions or disagreements, etc., they are always welcome from anyone including Sebastian himself.
I love this idea though I don't think you should start it till 5/26/13 so that we have a 1 year track record of his "I implore you to buy my picks" anniversary. Just my opinion though.
EVERYPLAY posted here and everywhere else is UNCONFIRMED unless you buy it and post it yourself!
I said in my post that I would start it on 5/25 as opposed to your 5/26.
The reason I am using 5/25 is that the first picks which were graded were for 5/25/12 meaning that the one year will be completed on 5/24/13-thus 5/25 will mark the beginning of the second year.
The final recap for the year completed on 5/24/13 will be given at the end of that day and will be referred to periodically as the new year goes on.
Oops-He had a 50 unit play on Seattle early.
I just turned it on and watched the walkoff homerun-this Cleveland team is something else-what a difference a manager makes-I am so happy for Francona!
ps Over time if one is to have any chance of success in sports gambling, it will pay him to go WITH hot teams rather than against them.
I just watched his Sunday video and again he had a very good day at the track, but he is simply not telling the truth about the Preakness itself about having the exact order of the horses 1-5 unless you boxed them-refer to post 1329 for more.
Seabass Report for Monday:
50 Yankees
50 Red Sox
50 Seattle(unposted loser)
He has a lean toward Chicago in hockey.
Picks go 1-2 and lose 1.6 units.
Overall record is now a DOCUMENTED 834-906-18 or 47.9% and 72 games under 500.
He needs around 150 CONSECUTIVE winners just to get to the theoretical break even 52.38% winners.
Overall deficit is now MINUS $16,177 at $100 a unit and MINUS $32,354 at $200 a unit, both of which were recommended for ALL plays when his "I implore you to buy my picks" speech was given on 5/25/12-THESE ARE NOT MADE UP FIGURES FOLKS!
There have been 133 winning days, 216 losing days and 3 break even plays for al poor 38.1% winning days percentage, which while improving of late, is still way below what he needs to have in order to get people to sign up for his picks.
One bit of clarification re: post 1334:
The limits imposed for each sport with the 300 and 400 and up units apply to each category within that sport.
This means for example he could have both a college football 300 unit and another 300 unit NFL play in the same week and the same with his higher rated plays within a given month.
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